MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Strikeout Totals, Including Tyler Anderson & Casey Mize (Tuesday, June 15)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Casey Mize
With a full slate of game, there are many props to choose from on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball card. There are two strikeout props that I like, both overs.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 47-42, -0.57 Units, -0.6% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Tyler Anderson (PIT) — 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-127)
|Pirates at Nationals||Nationals (-177)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Lost in the shuffle of how bad the Pirates have been is that some of their starting pitchers are putting together decent seasons. One of those pitchers is Tyler Anderson, who has a 4.52 ERA, 4.34 xFIP and 0.6 WAR. As a 31-year-old veteran, Anderson is putting together his best season since his 2016 rookie season with the Colorado Rockies.
Anderson averages about 5 2/3 innings per start this season and has a strikeout rate of 8.11 strikeouts per nine innings, which is a large improvement from his 6.18 strikeout rate from 2020. In a typical start this season, Anderson lasts 5 2/3 innings and has 5.11 strikeouts. Last year, Anderson averaged fewer than five innings and only 3.37 strikeouts.
The only issue for Anderson is Washington’s lineup. The opposing Nationals lineup averages only 3.75 runs per game, which is the second-worst in the league. However, despite the lack of Nationals’ run production, they are one of the most disciplined teams at the plate. The median MLB lineup has 8.76 strikeouts per game. Washington averages only 8.48 strikeouts which is the seventh-fewest in the league.
However, Washington’s hitters despite having better run production against left-handed pitchers, are more strikeout prone. Anderson, who is a lefty, should do well against a Nationals lineup that has the 10th worst strikeout rate against lefties in the league. At even money on DraftKings, I like Anderson to have a typical start and go over his strikeout total of only 4.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Tyler Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts +100 (DraftKings) would play up to -110
- Action Labs Score: 6
- Kevin Davis Score: 3
Casey Mize (DET) — 4.5 Strikeouts (+124/-158)
|Tigers at Royals||Royals -134|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
Former No. 1-overall draft pick Casey Mize is finally starting to hit his stride. Last year, Mize got shredded to bits as he had a 0-3 record with a 6.99 ERA. This season, Mize has a 3-4 record with a 3.44 ERA. With Mize performing better, the Tigers are relying on him for more innings. Mize averaged only four innings per start last season and is up to almost six innings per start this year.
The Kansas City Royals’ lineup averages only 8.09 strikeouts per game, which is the second-best strikeout rate in the league. However, there is not much deviation from the mean for Kansas City as their hitters have only 7.6% fewer strikeouts than the median MLB team. As a bettor, it is not as simple as fading every pitcher’s strikeout total against the Royals.
Despite his success, Mize has a strikeout rate of only 7.51 per nine innings. However, because of Mize’s usage, in a typical start Mize would pitch for about six innings and have 4.92 strikeouts. Even when you adjust that number to the Royals’ lineup, Mize should have 4.58 strikeouts. The Action Network’s modelprojects Mize to have 4.3 strikeouts.
At +124 odds on FanDuel, it is worth backing Mize to go over his strikeout total because of the price. I would bet it up +105 if the odds fall throughout the day.
Pick: Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts +124 (FanDuel) would bet up to +105
- Action Labs Score: 5
- Kevin Davis Score: 6