Thursday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Strikeout Totals, Including Blake Snell & Andrew Heaney (July 22)
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Blake Snell.
- We have three pitching props, which all target strikeout totals, for you on Thursday's Major League Baseball card.
- Mike Ianniello delivers his top picks, featuring Charlie Morton and Blake Snell, below on the card.
- Check out where he's finding betting value using our Action Labs prop tool.
Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing for Thursday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Charlie Morton — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
|Braves vs. Phillies||Braves (-135)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
After an inconsistent start to the season, Charlie Morton has really settled in and found a groove. He is 8-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 19 starts this year. In his last six outings, Morton is 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA and opponents are batting just .159 against him.
The strength for Morton has always been his curveball. It has been his most thrown pitch, tossing it 35.9% of the time and allowing just a .130 batting average with a 43.2% Whiff percentage. Morton pounds the bottom of the zone for a 49.4% Ground Ball rate, which is good enough for 14th among qualified pitchers.
Morton eats up innings, averaging 5.5 innings per start this year. He has averaged 6.5 innings per start over his last six games, pitching into the sixth inning in all of them.
Known more for his Ground Ball rate, Morton still has above average strikeout stuff. He has a 10.46 K/9 this season, averaging 6.4 strikeouts. He has tallied at least seven strikeouts in six consecutive starts, averaging 7.8 during the span.
The Phillies strikeout the seventh most in the league, so I like Morton to reach this number against them.
Action Labs Grade: 5/10
Blake Snell — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145)
|Padres vs. Marlins||Padres (-145)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
It has been an odd year for the former Cy Young Award winner in his first season in San Diego. Frankly, I have no idea if Snell is good or not. In seven home starts, Snell has a blistering 1.43 ERA and opponents are batting just .167 against him. Obviously, that’s very good. Yet, on the road, he has a 9.08 ERA in 10 starts and teams are hitting .322 against him. Yes, that’s very bad.
Snell ranks in the bottom 11% of the league in xERA and xwOBA this year, plus the bottom 6% in BB%, and is struggling with control via his 5.81 BB/9.
This fade of Snell is all about him being on the road. In his home starts, he has averaged 5.4 innings per start and 7.9 strikeouts per outing. On the road, Snell has managed to go just 3.67 innings with just 4.1 strikeouts per outing.
Needless to say, those are staggering splits. Snell has become an automatic fade away from San Diego, so I’ll play his under in Miami.
Action Labs Grade: N/A
Andrew Heaney — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
|Angels vs. Twins||Twins (-150)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
Veteran Andrew Heaney has been a pretty below average pitcher for most of his career, and this season hasn’t gone well either. He has posted a 5.56 ERA, although his 4.19 FIP is promising.
Heaney only throws three pitches, using his fastball 60% of the time, as well as a changeup and curveball. His curve is really his only strikeout pitch, and teams have been able to get solid wood on his fastball all season, allowing a 49% HardHit% and .382 wOBA.
In his last five starts, Heaney has a 8.49 ERA and allowed at least three runs in all five. He hasn’t been able to reach this total in three starts in a row.
The Twins strike out the ninth-fewest times in the league, plus they’re eighth in wRC+. Minnesota absolutely crushes fastballs, sitting first in the league and should have success against a pitcher who throws it 60% of the time.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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