The dog days of summer are officially entering the home stretch.
Football season is right around the corner, and while the Hall of Fame Game has officially kicked off preseason, we are still weeks away from the opening kick.
Lucky for us, baseball isn’t going anywhere! That means there are home runs to be hit, and it’s on us to find them.
Last week, Fernando Tatis Jr. started what has become his breakout with a much-needed garbage-time home run.
I’ve circled three more players that I like to hit a home run on Wednesday night, so without further ado, let’s break it down.
Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
Today, three of the best home run prop prices are available at Kalshi and Polymarket — make sure to check out our Kalshi Promo Code and Polymarket Promo Code.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:15 PM | |
| 10:00 PM | |
| 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Mets vs Braves MLB Player Prop: Ronald Acuna
As much as Zac Thornton has been a breath of fresh air for the Mets, I wouldn’t expect his elite production to last much longer.
Thornton doesn’t generate many whiffs and instead relies on inducing soft contact. The problem? Opponents have been hitting the ball hard, while batted-ball luck has bailed him out.
Thornton’s 4.63 xERA sits more than two runs higher than his 2.52 ERA. He’s already allowed double-digit barrels this season but has surrendered just three home runs. That combination is tough to sustain, and it feels like only a matter of time before the regression catches up with him.
A similar theme you’ll see throughout this article: Ronald Acuna Jr. returned from injury, and it’s been a slow couple of weeks. Over the past 15 days, Acuna is hitting just .196 despite five home runs.
But dig a little deeper, and there’s plenty to like. Acuna’s recent batted-ball data is littered with 100-MPH-plus exit velocities, showing that he’s still making plenty of hard contact. There’s little reason to be overly concerned with the low batting average.
While Acuna’s barrel rate is down slightly from last season, his 13.6% mark remains elite, ranking in the 88th percentile among qualified hitters. Injuries have zapped Acuna’s production in recent years, but there’s little doubt about the 40-40 upside he possesses when healthy.
Thornton is a prime negative-regression candidate, and the Mets’ bullpen is a mess after shipping out nearly every reliable arm at the trade deadline. Even if Acuna can’t do damage against Thornton, I like his chances against a depleted Mets bullpen at this price.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Home Run (18c, Kalshi)
Rangers vs Angels MLB Player Prop: Corey Seager
It’s only a matter of time before Corey Seager breaks out. The former MVP candidate has battled injury after injury this season, and while his average sits below the Mendoza line, his recent batted-ball data suggests a turnaround is coming.
Across his past 10 at-bats, Seager has recorded five balls hit harder than 98 MPH. He’s also barreled two of them — a deep center flyout and a home run that was robbed. Despite a .371 slugging percentage, Seager’s 14.4% barrel rate ranks in the 92nd percentile of qualified hitters and is right in line with his production over the past three seasons.
I bet Seager yesterday, and it was painful to watch a 393-foot flyout die at the warning track. But this is another matchup that I can’t pass up.
Simply put, the Angels are a disaster. Their pitching staff is depleted, and they’re going through plenty of trial and error. Los Angeles will hand the ball to George Klassen on Wednesday, hoping he can build off the four scoreless innings he tossed in his return to the bigs last week.
The problem? Klassen has a massive control issue, walking 26.9% of the batters he’s faced. The lack of control, combined with his reliance on a mid-90s fastball, has often led to barrels (13.8%). It’s a recipe for disaster against big-league hitters, and his 7.80 xERA explains just that.
While Klassen is a slight upgrade from Ryan Johnson — whom I bet Seager against yesterday — this remains a plus matchup for Seager.
I’m trusting the batted-ball data here and betting that Seager’s breakout is right around the corner.
Pick: Corey Seager Home Run (18c, Polymarket)
Royals vs Dodgers MLB Player Prop: Bobby Witt Jr.
I swear I didn’t do this on purpose. But when looking at recent exit velocity data and plus matchups, I landed on three hitters returning from injury who I believe have either found or are about to find their stride.
Bobby Witt falls into the former category. Since returning to the lineup just over a week ago, he’s hitting .333. He’s barreled the ball multiple times but still doesn’t have a home run to show for it. Witt is a perennial MVP candidate when healthy, and his underlying metrics back that up.
He’s also due for some positive regression based on his batted-ball luck. Witt’s .303 xBA ranks in the 100th percentile among qualified hitters, while his .509 xSLG ranks in the 94th percentile. His actual marks sit at just .283 and .446, respectively.
It’s not a massive gap, but it suggests we should see some positive regression, particularly in the extra-base department. Only 13 of Witt’s 38 barrels (34%) have left the park, and that’s despite Kauffman Stadium moving its fences in to make the park more hitter-friendly.
Witt has also crushed left-handed pitching, hitting .311 with an .869 OPS. That makes Wednesday’s matchup against southpaw Eric Lauer an ideal spot for the Royals shortstop.
I often look to fade Lauer whenever possible. The left-hander generates very little swing-and-miss, with just 14.7% of batters faced ending in a strikeout, and he’s also a fly-ball pitcher. That’s a dangerous combination when you struggle to limit barrels as much as Lauer does.
Lauer’s 11.4% barrel rate ranks in the bottom five percent among qualified pitchers and is the second-worst mark of his career. He’s allowed at least one home run in 15 of 18 appearances (83%), including multiple home runs six times (33%).
There are plenty of Royals bats worth backing in this spot, but I’m going with their most reliable hitter. Given Witt’s success against left-handed pitching and the quality of his recent contact, I expect a home run is coming sooner rather than later.
