Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, September 26.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Blue Jays -147, 0.74u | Bet to -160
- Blue Jays TT Over 4.5 (+112), 0.5u | Bet to +105
- Royals +117, 0.5u | Bet to 100
- Rockies/White Sox Over 8 (-115), 1.15u | Bet to 8.5
- R.Johnson Over 4.5 Strikeouts +114, 0.5u | Bet to 100
Reds @ Blue Jays Pick
This may not be a game that matters for much on Saturday, but it won’t be affected by weather and we know who’s pitching, which seems to be half the battle for this slate of games.
Rhett Lowder has been smoked for 33 runs over his last 33 innings, allowing 11% Barrels/BBE with a 6.3 K-BB% and just 37.6% of his contact on the ground.
Aside from a 4.30 Bot ERA (93 Pitching+), he doesn’t have another estimator below four and a half this season, while batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs within four points of .370 by either metric.
There are simply no positives to be found in his profile. He hasn’t had a single start with a SwStr exceeding 8.4% since July.
The projected Toronto lineup (I’m using a combination of BARTOLO and Rotowire today with some occasions failing to acknowledge platoon issues for unconfirmed pitchers, so please bear with me) has not hit for much power against RHP (the story of their season) with an average .130 ISO against them, but a 104 wRC+ on the road, 106 wRC+ vs RHP and 103 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
There are below average seasons in this lineup, of which Vlad Jr. is certainly teh disappointment with an 84 wRC+, but no automatic outs with Andres Gimenez’s 83 wRC+ vs RHP being the low bar.
The projected Cincinnati defense is strong throughout their non-1B infield spots (13 FRV), but poor just above everywhere else for a combined -6 FRV (Fielding Run Value).
The Reds come into the weekend with the 4th worst bullpen estimators over the last 30 days with a 5.08 FIP, 4.75 xFIP and 4.18 SIERA. BARTOLO ranks them just 24th on the season.
Trey Yesavage will be starting this game, but faced just seven batters in his return from a month and a half long IL stint without being able to rehab fully at the minor league level. With 40 pitches thrown, perhaps he gets to around 55, which would get him between three to four innings.
Failing to live up to the ridiculous standard set by his post-season heroics, in his true rookie season (2026), Yesavege’s 3.67 ERA did align well with a 3.40 ERA in 18 starts because he allowed just 6.1% Barrels/BBE with a 34 HardHit%, though all other indicators exceed four, including a 4.74 Bot ERA (97 Pitching+).
The 23.9 K% was fine and even a bit light, considering the 13.5 SwStr%, but he failed to obtain a lot of called strikes (14.6%) and saw too many ball fours (11.7%) before strike three.
Still, batters from either side of the plate remained below a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Five of the projected nine Reds sit between a 98 and 114 wRC+ against RHP this season. At more extreme ends are Elly De La Cruz (129) and then the remaining three below 55. This lineup averages an 85 wRC+ both on the road and against RHP, while being slightly worse over the last 30 days (81 wRC+).
The Blue Jays remain a top defense in this league with Saturday’s projected starters having accumulated 33 FRV.
Despite an ERA below three, the Toronto bullpen has been only middle of the league over the last month with a 4.15 FIP, 4.06 xFIP and 3.92 SIERA combination, while running a .253 BABIP with an 81.7 LOB%. BARTOLO ranks this unit middle of the league as well (13th).
Whether it’s Yesavage or the Toronto bullpen, I project both to have large edges over their Cincinnati counterparts on Saturday (three quarters of a run for the starters, two-thirds of a run for the bullpens), while giving the Toronto offense around a 15 point wRC+ edge.
Add in the potential near 40 FRV defensive edge and I make the Blue Jays nearly 2-1 favorites here.
However, who knows what might happen in a meaningless game with Yesavage only projected for three to four innings? I’m opting to split a unit between two pieces that are popping here, which are the Blue Jays full game (-147 or 59.5% currently on Novig) and the Toronto team total (Over 4.5 +112 at FD).
Picks: Blue Jays -147, 0.74u | Bet to -160, Blue Jays TT Over 4.5 (+112) | Bet to +105
Guardians @ Royals Pick
Here, we have a game that matters (for the Guardians, as of now) and we know the two pitchers, but the weather is a question mark. The current forecast is for temps in the low 70s with a light wind blowing across the field towards left-field, but around a 50% chance of rain throughout the game. Weather forecasts do often change overnight, especially the precipitation expectations.
Tanner Bibee not only needs a strong start in the larger scheme of things for the Guardians post-season seeding, but with at least five runs allowed in three of his last four starts, he may be pitching for a post-season rotation spot.
Bibee has walked six with just seven strikeouts in the three bad starts, while allowing half of his barrels (3) with a 47.1 HardHit% in his long strong effort (2 runs, 7 strikeouts).
His 11.7 K-BB% is a new career low with career highs in barrels (8.1%) and hard hit rate (39.4%).
That’s actually a league average pitcher, which is fine, but not what the Guardians were hoping for and trending in the wrong direction since the break.
Bibee’s 4.35 ERA sits between estimators ranging from a 4.02 Bot ERA (100 Pitching+) and 4.79 dERA. I have him almost exactly at four and a half for the season. LHBs (.326 wOBA, .335 xwOBA) have hit him harder than RHBs (.299 wOBA, .294 xwOBA).
That’s not ideal against a Kansas City projected lineup with some left-handed pop. They’ve hit well at home (average 115 wRC+) and have been above average against RHP (105), while running about average over the last 30 days (100 wRC+).
Carter Jensen (121 wRC+, .251 ISO), Jac Caglianone (141, .212) and Vinnie Pasquantino (122, .188) have all hit RHP well and each exceeds a 130 wRC+ over the last month. They could give Bibee, who has had mixed results in three starts against the Royals, some problems.
A solid Cleveland defense projects starters that have accumulated 15 FRV this season.
The bullpen is Cleveland’s biggest strength. In fact, they have the best last 30 day estimators in the league (2.92 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA) and rank as BARTOLO’s 10th best unit.
Michael Wacha has probably been Kansas City’s most pleasant surprise this season, but his 3.33 ERA sits well below estimators that start with a 3.98 xERA and run as high as a 4.67 ERA with most of them (4.36 SIERA, 4.36 xFIP, 4.31 FIP) sitting right in between.
Wacha manages contact well (7.0% Barrels/BBE, 36.4 HardHit%) and doesn’t give up free passes (6.7%), but doesn’t miss a lot of bats (19.6 K%). I’m siding with those middling estimators.
By now, we all know that Wacha’s elite changeup (64 PitchingBot overall, 130 Pitching+) gives him a large reverse split: over 50 points of wOBA and xwOBA this season. That should give him an edge against a Cleveland lineup full of switch hitters, whom I don’t think bat right-handed against him (though I haven’t paid much attention).
In fact, Wacha has faced the Guardians three times, pitching at least seven innings with two runs or less each time.
The projected Cleveland lineup has been hot lately, averaging a 114 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but have been just average on the road (97 wRC+) and against RHP (103 wRC+) this year.
The Royals mirror the Guardians’ success on defense with projected starters having accumulated 16 FRV and with Salvador Perez spending a lot of time at DH, his non-presence on the field would add another 10 FRV.
The Kansas City bullpen has been a problem most of the season, ranking as BARTOLO’s 3rd worst unit, but over the last month, they have the 13th best indicators in the league (3.89 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA).
We can call base running (3 BRR edge for Kansas City via projected lineups) and defense a wash (depending on Sal Perez), giving the Royals their small home field edge right off the top.
From there, I give them very small starting pitching and offensive edges, only about one-tenth of a run and five points of wRC+.
As it is, I’m aligned with the F5 line favoring the Royals, but even with the Guardians gaining nearly a full run in bullpen advantage, I can’t push get to Kansas City being in a dog position.
Part of that is because Wacha pitches deep into games and may only need an inning or two from the bullpen.
I like the Royals here and would play them to even money. Prediction markets currently have the best price (Novig 46% or +117) and I would endorse them over sportsbooks in this instance because you can trade out at a better price if it ends up in a bullpen situation you don’t like, especially if there’s a rain interruption.
Picks: Royals +117, 0.5u | Bet to 100
Rockies @ White Sox Pick
Here we have a meaningful game (for the White Sox likely) with known pitchers and safe, if not ideal baseball weather. Temps in the low 60s with a light wind blowing from left could reduce run scoring from 3-5% in a park that already plays 2% below average. Scheduled umpire Shane Livensparger only gives 0.8% of that back to the offenses.
Walking exactly 9% of batters faced for the second consecutive season, Jose Quintana is rocking a career low 11.1 K%. A 9.3 SwStr% suggests the small sample (10 starts) is off, but with just a 12.5 CStr%, maybe not by too much.
His 34.2 HardHit% is two points below his career rate, but he’s already allowed 15 barrels (9.5%) with a new career low 33.5 GB% (he’s never been below 40%).
Quintana doesn’t have a simple estimator below five and only his pitch modeling (5.03 Bot ERA, 87 Pitching+) remains below his 5.40 ERA. I have his true talent this season only one-tenth of a run below six with batters from either side of the plate hitting him at a .340 wOBA and xwOBA clip or better (LHBs above .400).
The White Sox platoon out a lot of LHBs against LHP and it works. Saturday’s projected lineup averages a 106 wRC+ at home, 115 wRC+ vs LHP (.189 ISO) and 103 wRC+ over the last 30 days. They’re getting breakout seasons from Miguel Vargas (156 wRC+, .266 ISO vs LHP) and Chase Meidroth (185, .237), along with a turn back the clock one from Randal Grichuk (180, .317).
The projected Colorado defense hasn’t been bad (-1 FRV), but their bullpen remains 5th worst over the last month (4.48 FIP, 4.73 xFIP, 4.36 SIERA), while ranking as BARTOLO’s worst unit.
Davis Martin has allowed just nine runs (six earned) over his last 23.1 innings, but that stretches out over six outings with a 6.2 K-BB% and 47.2 HardHit%.
The White Sox are employing him in smaller spurts and getting him out before too much damage can be done.
As well as he started the season, his 3.84 ERA still matches his 3.82 FIP, but with awful pitch modeling (4.94 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+) and remaining estimators ranging from a 4.13 xFIP to a 4.67 xERA. Overall, I have him around four and a half.
The thing that still may surprise some people is that these Rockies aren’t the awful road offense they’ve predictably been for years. Saturday’s projected nine average a stunning 112 wRC+ on the road, 105 wRC+ vs RHP and 98 wRC+ over the last month.
The White Sox do employ a strong defense with their platoon lineup (25 FRV) with a much better bullpen that still only has a 3.75 FIP, 4.46 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA over the last 30 days (19th). BARTOLO ranks them 12th best.
I think there’s going to be some scoring here with the Chicago defense and bullpen the only major obstacles towards it and I don’t expect the White Sox to be the only team participating in the offensive highlights.
Picks: Over 8 (-115), 1.15u | Bet to 8.5
Angels @ Mariners Pick
Ryan Johnson has struck out 24 of his last 94 batters with just three walks and a 12.6 SwStr%. He’s had at least five strikeouts in all four starts.
Johnson is a bit of an oddball in that a cutter is his main fastball (43.2% last four, 38% season) and though it’s not usually a bat missing piece, he’s complimenting it with a slider (34%, 23%).
You would think this might lead to a large strikeout split, but on the season, he’s between 18-19% against batters from either side of the plate.
No, that’s not very much, but of the 22 batters I project him to face (at least that many in four straight). The first 22 batters in the projected Seattle lineup average a 24.1 K% vs RHP.
We’re already in a situation where we should probably expect Johnson to improve on his season strikeout rates without even getting to the environment.
The combination of left and right-handed batters Johnson is expected to face would mean an average 15% park strikeout boost. We can also tack on an additional 5% for scheduled umpire Jansen Visconti. Weather shouldn’t impact strikeouts much more than that, but we’re looking at around a 20% environmental boost for Johnson here.
In the end, I’m boosting Johnson’s expected strikeout rate to nearly 25% for this matchup, which I don’t consider exceptional considering the opposing lineup, his last four starts and the environmental effects.
That puts me closer to 5.5 than 4.5 and we’re getting the positive end of the money here (+114 FanDuel).
Picks: R.Johnson Over 4.5 Strikeouts, 0.5u | Bet to 100
