Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Expert Picks for ALCS Game 1 MLB Playoffs

Yankees vs Astros Prediction, Expert Picks for ALCS Game 1 MLB Playoffs article feature image

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: The Yankees dugout celebrates.

  • The Astros are favored over the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS tonight in Houston.
  • Ace Justin Verlander is on the mount for Houston, while New York is going with Jameson Taillon.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of how our staff is betting this series opener on Wednesday night.

Yankees vs. Astros Odds

Yankees Odds+176
Astros Odds-210
Over/Under7 (+100 / -120)
Time7:37 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a long a tumultuous series against the Cleveland Guardians, the New YorkYankees clinched their spot in the ALCS by virtue of their Game 5 victory Tuesday night in the Bronx.

Their reward was a date with the rested Houston Astros, who haven't played since Saturday, when they dispatched of the feel-good Mariners in an 18-inning Game 5.

The rested Astros have their ace, Justin Verlander, on the mound. The Yankees are anything but rested and turn to Jameson Taillon, who makes his second appearance and first start of the postseason after initially being scheduled to start Game 5 on Monday before the rain out.

How are our analysts betting this Game 1? We have two bets to recommend below. Here are our best bets for ALCS Game 1 between the Yankees and Astros.

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Over 6.5 (-125)
Astros -1.5 (+120)

Over 6.5 (-125)

Odds via DraftKings

Kenny Ducey: There seemed to be a bit of a pattern which developed this season when it came to the Yankees’ meetings with Houston. That is to say, pitching ruled each contest.

Four of the six games these two played during the regular season went under, and one of the games which cashed the over only did so by the hook. That’s to be expected when two teams with great bullpens square off, but this couldn’t be any different than the scenarios facing the Yankees during the regular season.

The likes of Michael King and Ron Marinaccio are currently on the shelf with Clay Holmes regressing a bit and some other names like Frankie Montas missing from New York’s stable.

Both of these teams averaged over four runs per game in the Division Series despite the over cashing just twice in total between their eight games, and I think both of these offenses should keep humming here in Houston on Wednesday.

Jameson Taillon surrendered six earned runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings in his only start against the Astros this season, and while Justin Verlander did fare far better than Taillon in his lone start against the Yankees this season, he’s hardly an exciting pitcher at the moment after he was rocked in Game 1 of the ALDS by Seattle.

If Verlander is going to do that after he posted a 4.15 ERA in the 2018 postseason and a 4.33 ERA in 2019, I'm going to have to fade him. I’m also going to have to fade Taillon and a depleted Yankees bullpen, and a staff which just wrapped a pressure-packed Game 5 in New York less than 24 hours ago.

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Astros -1.5 (+120)

Odds via BetMGM

Jules Posner: Getting taken to the brink by the Cleveland Guardians was not the best look for the New York Yankees. The Houston Astros are like the Guardians if they got put on expert mode. As you might expect, the Astros contain numerous considerable edges on Wednesday night's Game 1.

Justin Verlander is historically an average-ish postseason pitcher. One interesting facet of his averageness is that he is truly a pitcher who deals in extremes. This postseason got off to a rocky start, but Game 1 should be the start where he gets his groove back.

On the other side, Jameson Taillon seemed like a fish out of water in his postseason debut coming out of the bullpen. Now he is slated to start Game 1 on the road where he has been a considerably worse pitcher. He's also backed by a bullpen that is shakier than clearance section Ikea furniture. Not only are they unreliable, but they're also working a ton.

Additionally, the Yankees have only posted a 78 wRC+ as a team in Houston this season. Their high-powered offense were not able to do much damage against the Guardians' bullpen and the Astros' bullpen might be better. If the Yankees can't get it going against Verlander, they may be in trouble.

The Astros' run line opened around +120 and remained there steadily overnight. It should be taken as long as it's in plus money.

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