MLB Playoff Projections: Which Team Is the Best World Series Bet?
Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Byron Buxton
- The Astros (+200), Dodgers (+250) and Yankees (+500) are the favorites to win the World Series.
- Using a consensus projection, we determine which playoff team is the best bet to win the World Series.
October baseball is upon us. The 2019 MLB Postseason starts Tuesday and bettors have plenty options when it comes to wagering on the playoffs. Moneyline bets, over/unders, first five innings wagers and Pennant futures are all available, but at this stage the most popular bet is on the World Series winner.
The Houston Astros are +200 favorites to win the World Series. Houston won an MLB-best 107 games, outscored its opponents by 280 runs and will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. After the Astros, the Dodgers (+250), Yankees (+500) and Braves (+900) are the only other teams shorter than 10-1 to win it all.
Odds as of Tuesday at 8 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Using predictions from Baseball Prospectus (BP) and FanGraphs (FG), we have created a consensus World Series projection. According to the models, the Astros are the most likely champion with a 27.0% chance.
The implied probability of Houston winning a second World Series in three years, however, is 33.3% based on its +200 odds. Therefore, there is no value in placing a World Series bet on the Astros.
If Houston isn’t an option, which team(s) should bettors back?
Only one team has considerable value when comparing the implied probability to the consensus projection. The Minnesota Twins (+1300) are currently being undervalued by the betting market.
There is one thing the Twins do better than any team in baseball: hit home runs. Minnesota smacked 307 dingers (a new single season record) and is the first team to ever hit 300 home runs in a season.
There is power up and down the lineup. Nelson Cruz leads the team with 41 moonshots and seven other players hit at least 20 homers — the most ever on one team. Plus, there are 11 players on the roster that have hit double-digit homers — tied for the fourth-most all-time.
With this kind of firepower, the models give the Twins a 9.8% chance to win the World Series. Based on the consensus projection, Minnesota’s betting odds should be closer to +900, not +1300.
They’re still a longshot, but the Twins are the best value bet, based on the current odds, to win the World Series.