MLB Playoff Props Picks on Thursday for Yankees vs Astros Game 2
Ben Ludeman/Texas Rangers/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Severino
I think the Yankees will bounce back today, and I think two Yankees will have huge days today.
So, I'm targeting this New York duo in the player props market.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Luis Severino Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)
|Yankees vs Astros|
|First Pitch||7:37 p.m. ET|
This is a 10/10, top-rated play by our Action Labs Player Props Tool. Our projections mark Luis Severino for 6.2 strikeouts today, giving us over a 20% edge on the current line posted at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, BallParkPal's pitcher simulations mark Severino for 5.6 strikeouts.
Take either projection, and the value is good at this number.
Severino has cashed this number in 13 of 19 starts this season. However, he was working through injuries in the second half of the season, often being limited in starts.
When he was healthy, this line was almost automatic. Severino cashed this number in 10 of his last 12 starts when he tossed at least 80 pitches in a start. And for what it's worth, the Yankees could use Severino's length today, given the bullpen is dealing with health and fatigue issues.
The Houston offense is scary. The Astros are as disciplined as any lineup in baseball and had the second-highest contact rate this season.
However, the Astros also allowed all three opposing Seattle pitchers to go over their strikeout totals in the ALDS.
Given those trends and the projections, I feel very confident in Severino picking up at least five strikeouts today.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-118)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Giancarlo Stanton Over 1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Did you know Giancarlo Stanton has a career 1.037 OPS in the postseason?
Did you know Stanton has slugged .690 in the postseason?
Did you know Stanton has 11 postseason home runs?
Now you do. And I think Stanton has a great chance to add to those totals today.
Stanton is rolling. He's cashed his bases total in six of his last 10 matchups, piling up a whopping 24 bases in that stretch. That includes a home run in Game 5 of the ALDS and two hits in Game 1 of the ALCS.
— 💥MLB Barrels 💥 (@mlb_barrels) October 20, 2022
This a good matchup for Stanton today. Stanton is 4-for-8 lifetime off Astros starter Framber Valdez with two extra-base hits. Stanton's 104.7 mph avg. exit velocity and 8.7-degree avg. launch angle project an xSLG close to .700 in those ABs.
BallParkPal's Player Props Tool makes the fair price on this line about +165, so we are getting excellent value at anything +180 or above.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+180)