MLB Playoff Prop Picks, PrizePicks Plays for Yankees vs Astros, Phillies vs Padres
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Donaldson
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Gerrit Cole Over 4.5 Hits Allowed
Taking the mound for the New York Yankees is right-hander Gerrit Cole. While he has been strong through the postseason, this number is set too low against a stacked Houston lineup.
Dating back to the regular season, Cole has allowed five or more hits in three of his last five starts, including in his last outing against Cleveland. Cole has been going deep into games as he has gone at least six innings in five straight starts, which could help us get over this number.
Luis Severino allowed five hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Astros in Game 2, Jameson Taillon allowed four hits in just 4 1/3 innings in Game 1, and Houston tallied at least five hits against all three starting pitchers in the Seattle series.
Josh Donaldson Under 0.5 Total Bases
We are also fading a few Yankees hitters in this contest as they are slated to go against right-hander Cristian Javier. Javier’s lone appearance this postseason was in relief against the Seattle Mariners, an outing in which he surrendered a homer in one inning.
However, there should be optimism in Javier to bounce back now that he is back in a starting role. Over his last five starts, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.37 ERA and 0.54 WHIP.
The guy was untouchable to end the regular season, a trend we should expect to continue against New York. Through three career starts against the Yankees, he is 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.60 WHIP.
Josh Donaldson is the first hitter we are fading from New York. Failing to record a hit in seven of his last 11 games, Donaldson will likely struggle against Javier as well.
Across four career plate appearances against the right-hander, Donaldson is 0-for-2 with a strikeout and two walks (walks do not count toward total bases props). When facing right-handed pitchers this year, Donaldson possesses a mere .223 BA, .368 SLG, and .675 OPS.
Giancarlo Stanton Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other Yankees hitter we are fading is Giancarlo Stanton. Typically an all-or-nothing hitter, five of Stanton’s last eight hits are homers, which is bad news for Stanton in a matchup against Javier.
A pitcher who is great at limiting extra base hits, Javier boasts an exceptional .286 xSLG this season. If Stanton is not homering in this matchup, then it is likely that he does not get a hit at all.
If you take away those five home runs mentioned earlier, he is just 4-for-42 (.095 BA) at the dish over his last 13 games. Through four career plate appearances against Javier, Stanton is 0-for-4 with four strikeouts.
Mike Clevinger + Bailey Falter Over 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed
This play is simply a YRFI wager for Game 4 of the NLCS between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies. Taking the mound for San Diego is right-hander Mike Clevinger, who has not had a strong season as he went 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through 23 appearances.
In his lone playoff appearance, he got rocked by the Dodgers as he allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits through just 2 2/3 innings. Not only did the YRFI cash in that matchup, but It has hit in each of Clevinger’s last six starts.
On the other side, we can expect Bailey Falter to open up a bullpen game for the Phillies. Falter opened up a bullpen game for Philadelphia to end the regular season against the Astros, a game in which the YRFI did not hit.
However, he allowed two hits and got out of a sticky situation with a double play. It was a shaky inning, and the margin between a run crossing and not was very slim.
In the first inning, we have a chance for the best hitters on each team to produce a run against two pitchers who are not dominant.