MLB Playoffs Game 7 Betting History | How Do Favorites, Underdogs, Totals Perform Historically?
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Believe it or not, Tuesday's Diamondbacks vs. Phillies NLCS matchup will be just the second Game 7 in the MLB playoffs since 2020. Of course, that means Monday night's Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 7 was the first since 2020.
The 2021 and 2022 postseasons were devoid of such drama, which can only take place in either the LCS or World Series due to MLB's playoff format.
Dating back to 2005, there have been 14 Game 7s in the MLB postseason, so I thought now would be a good time to take a look at some betting data.
All data via Action Labs, which you can subscribe to here.
Totals
Tonight's matchup opened with a total of 8.5.
Of the 14 previous Game 7s in our database (going back to 2005), the Under is 8-6. A $100 bettor on the under in those 13 previous Game 7s would have net $127 in profit.
Unders have particularly been trending over the past six years. In seven Game 7s since 2017, the Under is 5-2. The only game that went over in that span was Game 7 of the 2019 World Series between the Nationals and Astros, which had a total of 7.5 and ended with a final score of 6-2, Nationals.
Two of the three most recent Game 7s took place in the 2020 LCS. Dodgers vs. Braves closed with a total of 8.5 and ended with the Dodgers winning, 4-3 (Under). That same year's ALCS ended with the Rays beating the Astros, 4-2 (Under) in a game that closed with a total of 7.5. Monday's Rangers vs. Astros game also went over the total of nine.
Favorite or Underdog?
The Phillies are home favorites in Tuesday's Game 7 against the Diamondbacks. As of this writing, they're around -162 on the moneyline at most sportsbooks, while the Diamondbacks are checking in as underdogs in the +136 range.
Of the 14 previous Game 7s in our database, the favorites and underdogs are directly split: Favorites are 7-7.
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