MLB Best Bets Monday | Odds, Picks for Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 6, Rangers vs Astros Game 7 (October 23)
Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Merrill Kelly
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 6 and Rangers vs Astros Game 7 highlight what will be the final day of the MLB season in which we get multiple games on which to wager.
The Phillies will look to punch their ticket to their second straight World Series in tonight's matchup in Philadelphia. They have Aaron Nola on the mound, while Arizona hopes to force a Game 7 on Tuesday night behind Merrill Kelly.
The Rangers and Astros have played an intense series and it all comes down to this: Game 7 in Houston with Max Scherzer on the mound against Cristian Javier. Winner goes to the World Series, loser goes home.
Here are our best bets for Diamondbacks-Phillies Game 6 and Rangers-Astros Game 7 on Monday, October 23.
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MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 5:07 p.m. | ||
| 5:07 p.m. | ||
| 8:03 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
Brandon Marsh has been one of the more underrated pieces in the Philadelphia Phillies’ postseason roster. Off of righties in particular, he has been sharp all season. Dating back to August 1 and including the playoffs, Marsh has a .348 xwOBA off of right-handers. He has a .284/.378/.486 slash line, an 11.8% walk rate and five homers in 127 plate appearances.
His likely opponent for his first two plate appearances will be Merrill Kelly, who had a 3.29 ERA against a 4.13 xERA this regular season.
The playoffs, and specifically this series, have been a bit of a letdown for him. Kelly might be starting to see a little of that expected regression. Even though he shut down the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Phillies scored four earned off of him.
Marsh should have plenty of chances against hittable pitching between Kelly and the Diamondbacks' underwhelming bullpen.
He should be able to go over his total bases in this game at 0.5. Take it to -135.
Pick: Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Total Bases (-105)
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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
The top of the Phillies' lineup has crushed Diamondbacks starters the third time through the order in this series.
Zac Gallen pitched really well for five innings on Saturday night in Game 5, until he gave up two home runs to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in three batters, effectively ending the game with the Phillies doubling their lead to 4-0.
In Game 2, Merrill Kelly also pitched quite well for five innings, but then faced Schwarber in the sixth and the Phillies slugger expanded the lead to 3-0 and set off a six-run sixth inning to end that game.
The Diamondbacks' high-leverage relievers are mostly rested because of the off day and the fact that Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald did not pitch at all in Game 5.
My expectation is that Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo will employ the same strategy with Kelly as he did with Brandon Pfaadt in Game 2. Pfaadt had thrown 5 2/3 scoreless, but he still refused to let Pfaadt face Schwarber a third time.
Instead, Lovullo will use one of his lefty options in that spot to prevent the big homer on Tuesday.
Since they're facing elimination, the leash for Kelly has to be extremely short. That means 18 batters for Kelly, and it'll be very hard for him to record more than 15 outs in 18 batters.
Arizona's bullpen has to be all-in here, and for the most part, that bullpen has kept the Phillies off the board relatively well in this series.
Trust Lovullo to play the numbers. I'd lay up to -200 on this prop.
Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-155)
Rangers vs. Astros
Unless it's for some sentimental reason, I don't see how Max Scherzer gets over his outs total.
Scherzer got hit hard in Game 3, giving up five runs over four innings.
He was wild, too, as only 36 of his 63 pitches were in the zone, and the ones that were in the zone got rocked. Per Statcast, the Astros had nine hard hits on the 13 balls that were put into play, so it wasn't like Scherzer was unlucky to give up five runs.
This is also the same Scherzer who is coming off a shoulder injury and was on a 65-70 pitch count in the last game. It's Game 7, so in theory maybe he's not on a pitch count, but I find it very hard to believe he's going to see the order the third time through. That would mean he's somehow been incredibly effective against a lineup that is top five in baseball against the two pitches he likes to throw the most.
One more thing: Scherzer gets really flustered with guys on base. It happened in Game 3 and all season long. When runners aren't on base, his xFIP is 3.44, but when guys are on base or in scoring position, his xFIP balloons up to over five.
With the off day on Saturday, everyone in the Rangers' bullpen is available, and I don't think Bochy is going to mess around once Scherzer gets into trouble.
His Pitching Outs for Game 3 opened at 12.5 with under at +105, but the odds on that under closed at -150. I do not understand why it's now one more out and not even that heavily juiced after what we saw in Game 3.
Pick: Max Scherzer Under 13.5 Outs Recorded (-120)
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