Yankees vs. Indians Weather Report, Betting Odds: Rain, Wind Expected in Cleveland
Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Progressive Field
- Yankees vs. Indians Game 2 is in an incoming-rain delay on Wednesday night, but it's the wind the bettors should really care about.
- The Yankees are around -130 favorites in tonight's matchup over Cleveland (+120), with the total set at 8.5.
- Below you'll find the betting trends that surround windy baseball games, and even ones that take place at Progressive Field.
When faced with an unprecedented 8-game MLB Postseason slate, your first instinct may not be to check the weather report. But given some of Wednesday’s forecasts, it’s looking like Mother Nature may play a significant role in few of today’s games.
Three in particular are set to face winds of 15+ mph, which is more than enough to affect a baseball game. As for how, that’s dependent on that wind’s direction — which doesn’t always affect the total as you might think — and the ballpark in which the game is played.
Let’s take a look at the three matchups facing heavy winds today.
Astros vs. Twins
1:08 p.m. ET | Jose Urquidy vs. Jose Berrios
Target Field Weather Report
- Wind speeds: 15 to 17 mph
- Wind direction: Out to right
Oddly enough, in our database, wind blowing out to right field has actually been a recipe for the under — at least when it reaches this speed tier.
Since 2005, games with winds of at least 15 mph blowing out to right have generated a 108-83-7 (57%) record to the under. Oddly enough, that makes “out to right” the most profitable direction for the under when the wind speed reaches this level — even more profitable than straight in (37-33).
As for why — it’s possible that totals get inflated simply due to the wind blowing in an outfield direction, but perhaps blowing out to right doesn’t help as many hitters as we think.
It’s also possible that this direction allows right-handed pitchers — especially those with high spin rates — to get more movement on their pitches, making it more difficult for hitters to make contact in the first place.
Target Field in particular, although it’s obviously a much smaller sample, has a 7-3 record to the under in such games, which actually makes it the second-most profitable ballpark in our database for this situation.
The total in this matchup hasn’t budged from its opener of 7.5, with some slight (-115) juice on the over.
Marlins vs. Cubs
2:08 p.m. ET | Sandy Alcantara vs. Kyle Hendricks
Wrigley Field Weather Report
- Wind speeds: 19 to 20 mph
- Wind direction: Left to right
Onto Wrigley, which has been the most affected-by-wind ballpark over the past 15 seasons.
Since 2005, games featuring double-digit wind speeds not blowing in an outfield direction (today’s is being classified as left-to-right) have gone 128-86-13 (60%) to the under. That win rate holds, and even ticks up slightly, when the threshold is raised to 15+ mph, returning 30-19-4 (61%) record.
It took until 9:30 a.m. ET — which isn’t uncommon for windy Wrigley games — but oddsmakers finally released this total at an opener of 8.
Yankees vs. Indians
7:08 p.m. ET | Masahiro Tanaka vs. Carlos Carrasco
Progressive Field Weather Report
- Wind speeds: 18 to 21 mph
- Wind direction: Out to right
More wind out to right, which, as we now know, doesn’t — or hasn’t — helped hitters as much as we might think.
In this case, we could be exceeding the 20-mph mark for the first part of the game, too.
Unfortunately, there’s not a whole lot to make of Progressive Field’s specific vulnerability to this sort of wind. Within the 108-83-7 under record, Progressive has gone just 4-5 in its nine games fitting this situation.
Following last night’s 15-run output, this total has moved from 8 to 8.5 since opening.