MLB Playoffs Player Props | 5 PrizePicks Plays, Including Amed Rosario and Matt Chapman (Saturday, October 8)
Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images. Pictured: Amed Rosario #1 of the Cleveland Guardians
After an entertaining first day of the Wild Card round, we now look forward to Day 2. Four teams have the opportunity to shut the door on Saturday while their opponents will fight to see Sunday.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Myles Straw Under 0.5 Total Bases
To kick off Saturday, we have Game 2 between the AL East's Tampa Bay Rays and the AL Central's Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland won 2-1 in Game 1 and will look to clinch a berth in the ALDS in what will likely be another low-scoring affair.
Taking the mound for Tampa Bay is right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who returned just two weeks ago from Tommy John surgery. Glasnow has looked sharp in his first two starts back, posting a 1.35 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.
We are going to be fading a couple of Guardians hitters in this contest, starting with outfielder Myles Straw. While he did record a single in Game 1, we should expect a worse outing Saturday.
It has been a tough year for the outfielder as has generated a mere .220 BA, a .272 SLG and a .562 OPS through 151 games this season. When facing right-handed pitching, Straw's numbers dip to a .207/.256/.537 slash line.
Amed Rosario Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
The other Cleveland hitter we are fading in Game 2 is Amed Rosario. While he has only faced Glasnow twice in his career, Rosario is 0-2 with a strikeout.
Rosario did go over this total in Game 1, but the wider trends suggest this number is too high. Over his past 12 games, Rosario has gone under this total eight times.
When facing right-handed pitching this season, Rosario's splits drop by approximately 15% to a .279 BA, a .385 SLG and a .691 OPS. Like Game 1, Saturday is supposed to be cold with the wind blowing inward, which obviously does not benefit the hitters.
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Total Bases
We are also going to be fading a couple of Tampa Bay hitters on Saturday as they are slated to go against right-hander Triston McKenzie. Through 31 appearances this season, McKenzie boasts a 2.96 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP.
McKenzie caught fire in the second half of the season and enters the playoffs in great form as he is 4-3 with a 2.27 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. We should expect this strong pitching to continue against Tampa Bay, a team he has excelled against in his short career.
Through McKenzie's two starts against the Rays, he has posted a 2.25 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. The first Rays hitter we are fading is Taylor Walls.
Not only did Walls fail to record a hit in Game 1, but he has gone under this total in 11 of his past 15 games. This trend will likely continue against McKenzie, a guy whom Walls is hitless against through two career plate appearances.
It has been an extremely difficult year for Walls, who is hitting just .173 through 141 games with a .286 SLG and a .552 OPS. Going against one of the better pitchers in baseball, I would be shocked if he reverses course Saturday.
Yandy Diaz Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
The other Rays hitter we are fading in Game 2 is Yandy Diaz. After going hitless in Game 1 with two strikeouts, Diaz's tough stretch at the dish has officially continued into the postseason.
Over his past 11 games, Diaz has gone under this total eight times. In his career against McKenzie, Diaz is 0-3.
When facing right-handed pitching this season, Diaz's splits drop by about 12% to a .291 BA, a .398 SLG, and a .800 OPS. Those are not bad numbers by any means, but this drop in production, combined with his poor form and McKenzie's excellent pitching makes me confident in the under on this prop.
Matt Chapman Over 0.5 Total Bases
In the second game of the day, the AL East's Toronto Blue Jays host the AL West's Seattle Mariners with their backs against the wall. In a repeat play from Game 1, we are backing Chapman to record at least one hit.
Taking the mound for Seattle is left-hander Robbie Ray. Through 32 starts this season, Ray is 12-12 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.
In his career against the left-hander, Chapman is just 1-for-7, but that one hit is a homer. Since 2020, Chapman's splits jump up by about 5% to a .231 BA, a .459 SLG and a .714 OPS when facing lefties.
These are not the strongest numbers in the world, but all we need is one knock from Toronto's cleanup hitter on Saturday and I believe he will get it done against Ray. After a poor Game 1 performance, look for Toronto's bats to come alive in Game 2.