The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Washington Nationals on June 5, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Diamondbacks are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Nationals vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks Pick: Nationals ML (+116)
My Nationals vs Diamondbacks best bet is on the Nationals moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 9 -104o / -118u | +116 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -104o / -118u | -134 |
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Nationals +116, Diamondbacks -134
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks over/under: 9 (-104o / -118u)
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks spread: Nationals +1.5 (-188), Diamondbacks -1.5 (+155)
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Polymarket Odds
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| LHP Foster Griffin (WSH) | Stat | RHP Merrill Kelly (AZ) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 3.76 / 4.47 | ERA / xERA | 5.06 / 7.29 |
| 4.89 / 3.91 | FIP / xFIP | 5.60 / 5.17 |
| 15.7% | K-BB% | 4.7% |
| 42.2% | GB% | 36.0% |
| .246 | BABIP | .274 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The Nationals have now dropped three straight after a sweep at the hands of the Miami Marlins, and they'll hope Foster Griffin can stop the bleeding as they begin a road trip out West. The young lefty has found success for Washington with a 6-2 record and 3.76 ERA across 11 starts, and after a slight speed bump in the middle of May, he's come back and been better in his last two turns.
Griffin gave up three homers against the Padres last time out, but they were all of the solo variety. He's now given up 13 all year — seventh-worst in the National League — and eight came in May.
The lefty finds himself right around the league average as it pertains to contact through the air, but his fly ball rate is a drastic five points higher than the league average — meaning this issue is likely to persist. His 23.4% Pull Air% is also a nightmare, leaving him extremely vulnerable to the longball.
Still, Griffin does some good things. He has had a few starts this year in which he's struggled with control, but his walk rate remains friendly at 7.5%, while his strikeout rate is a tick above average at 23.2%. With all the fly balls, too, his Expected Batting Average isn't too daunting, but it's the .442 xSLG that puts him firmly in the below-average category.
Griffin may reap the benefits of pitching in Arizona on Friday; not only is it friendly to fly-ballers like himself, but he owns a solid 3.60 ERA on the road with a 1.03 WHIP — beating out his 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in the reverse split.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
Merrill Kelly has pitched nine games now, and after the worst start to a season you can imagine, his numbers are finally stabilizing a bit.
The veteran has now pitched to a 2.36 ERA across his last five starts, going 4-0 and running a WHIP of 0.99. It's not like he's been amazing under the hood, with his xBA sitting at .274 over that span, but it's at least a large improvement over his disastrous .310 xBA for the year. His .588 Expected Slugging for the year is the third-worst among qualified pitchers, and at .508 over the last five starts, it's hard to really get excited about this run.
Opponents are hitting just .213 against Kelly over this time, while he's run a 5.1% walk rate, so it's easy to see why he's had all the success he's had. If guys don't reach base, you are hard to beat.
With that said, he's seen a slight uptick in launch angle during that span, which amounts to a month, and fly balls are big if you pitch at Chase Field. Arizona continues to have one of the best outfield defenses in baseball, regularly helping their pitchers outperform the expected numbers, so it's no guarantee Kelly sees the steep regression many are hoping for.
He'll surely have a bad start eventually, and perhaps there's some hope to be found in the fact that the numbers in his three home starts have actually been significantly worse.
Now, we should probably note here that the Diamondbacks are up against a lefty, against which they own the second-best wRC+ in baseball. Arizona is dead last against righties, impossibly, with a drastic five-point jump in strikeout rate. That's pretty significant given Arizona doesn't strike out much, and it's also worth noting a pretty wide 30-point gap in Isolated Power in that split as well.
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
Playing the Diamondbacks against a lefty has been fun this year, and in their last five against a southpaw they've come up with four wins and a one-run loss to the Dodgers. They now head up against Griffin — a flawed yet effective young arm — but one with massive power concerns.
The Diamondbacks generally feast off the large dimensions of the outfield to get extra bases on gappers, and their low 9.3% home run-to-fly ball ratio is all the proof you need of that. Griffin has only surrendered 10 extra-base hits that were not homers this season, however, so that .418 SLG against him is a lot of noise as it pertains to this matchup.
Arizona is hitting just .239 in the last two weeks with a weak .140 ISO, and ranks 25th over that time with just 11 home runs.
It seems hard to fathom, then, that Griffin is going to get knocked around significantly — and one more thing I can tell you is that the Diamondbacks are a weird team in that they skew extremely toward line drives with a pretty even distribution of grounders and fly balls.
Griffin doesn't allow a ton of line drives, coming in firmly below the league average, and his lazy fly balls should find gloves at Chase Field given the dimensions and his outfield defense, which ranks seventh in Outs Above Average.
Even with all the success Arizona has had against lefties, it's hit just 17 home runs in that split, which ranks 15th, which is kind of a buzzkill given what we covered about its run against southpaws.
It's with a heavy heart that I must fade the Snakes at home in favor of…the Nationals.
Pick: Nationals ML (+116) | Play to +105
