The Chicago Cubs host the San Francisco Giants on June 5, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by -168 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+119) on the run line. The Giants are +139 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-143) on the run line. The total is set at 11 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Giants vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Giants vs Cubs Prediction
- Giants vs Cubs Picks: Hoerner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-111), Ray Under 4.5 K (+125)
My Giants vs Cubs best bets are Nico Hoerner to clear his total bases line and Robbie Ray to stay under his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Giants vs Cubs Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -143 | 11 -105o / -115u | +139 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +119 | 11 -105o / -115u | -168 |
- Giants vs Cubs moneyline: Giants +139, Cubs -168
- Giants vs Cubs over/under: 11 (-105o / -115u)
- Giants vs Cubs spread: Giants +1.5 (-143), Cubs -1.5 (+119)
Giants vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| LHP Robbie Ray (SFG) | Stat | RHP Edward Cabrera (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 3-2 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.45/5.18 | ERA / xERA | 4.00/4.47 |
| 5.40/4.67 | FIP / xFIP | 4.46/3.98 |
| 10.4% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 30.9% | GB% | 43.2% |
| .265 | BABIP | .298 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 92 | Location+ | 104 |
Giants vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
Robbie Rayhasn't helped the cause for the fourth-place Giants. He has a 4.45 ERA this year, and it's been nearly a month since he's completed five innings. His walk rate sails way up there at 11.5%, and he's walked 15.2% of hitters in his last five outings.
So what's gone wrong for the veteran lefty? I think this is just what can happen when you get old and no longer have a fastball you can trust. He's not wanting to throw that pitch in the zone because he knows what can happen to it. The four-seamer has given up a .480 xwOBA in this recent stretch, so he's trying to paint the corners with it and often missing for a 40% Ball% on the pitch.
In the same way, the slider has a .434 xwOBA allowed in the last five starts. It gets a few whiffs, but it's still a bad 12.3% SwStr% when you consider the pitch type. Sliders should be 15%+ to be effective.
We saw Ray try to change something last time out in response. He threw 20 sinkers, a brand new pitch for him this year. And he landed the sinker for a strike with ten of those pitches. He threw 34 four-seamers, 25 sliders, and 20 of these sinkers. So I think he'll go back to it in this one.
And this is a spot to get ahead of the books, because they aren't going to be pricing in a new pitch. What we know about sinkers is that they don't get whiffs. The pitch doesn't have movement that misses bats. And I'm not talking about Ray's sinker only, it's just a general principle across baseball. The Cubs already do a really nice job with the strikeout. They have a team 20.7% K% against lefties, a couple of points below the league average.
So we're looking at the under on Ray's strikeouts, first of all.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
I like Nico Hoerner's matchup a lot here. He's an elite hitter against lefties and has a .315 xBA against southpaws this year. He doesn't strike out and doesn't walk, so he's going to get a few balls in play in this one. The best way to bet on him would be through markets that reward hits and runs.
It'll be Ben Brown on the mound for the Cubs, we believe. The Cubs haven't officially announced that as I write this, but it seems like he's in line for the start. The Cubs seem to have a hard cap on him around 85 pitches. He's thrown 82, 83, and 82 in his last three starts even while being seemingly built up as a starter.
So he has to be pretty good to get through six innings. And he has been that good lately, with 13 innings in the last two. He has struck out 29 batters and walked seven in these 26 innings. He has a 1.73 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP since joining the rotation. You could argue that he is the Cubs ace right now.
Brown has a really nice pitch mix with the sinker he's added this year. That pitch keeps hitters from sitting on the four-seamer, and he does more than enough to set up his disgusting curveball, which is one of the best pitches in the league. The curve has a 27% SwStr% this year and a .197 xwOBA.
The Giants have been pretty good against curveballs this year, if that kind of stuff matters to you. Their team 73% Contact% against breakers is sixth-best in baseball.
San Francisco has been particularly tough on righties generally. Over the last month, they have a team OPS around .775 against righties. Lefties are the ones they struggle with. Since mid-April, they have a 33 PA/HR against righties; that's in the top half of the league.
I think we could see Ben Brown's run of greatness take a pause here. The league has video on this sinker now, and they know how he's going to attack them, and that'll probably force Brown to make another adjustment to stay this good as a starter.
Giants vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
The theme of the day is new sinkers. Ray's just started throwing this sinker last start as he tries to find something, anything that will work.
Ben Brown introduced the sinker last offseason, and it's turned him into a guy who has pitched like an ace since these injuries forced him back into the role.
Here's what I like:
- Nico Hoerner H+R+SB overs
- Robbie Ray strikeout unders
- Ben Brown outs recorded unders
Picks: Hoerner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-111), Ray Under 4.5 K (+125)
