There’s a clear odds-on-favorite to win the World Baseball Classic, which kicks off its festivities on Wednesday, March 4.
It’s unsurprising that Team USA is the favorite, sitting with -110 odds at bet365.
But the Americans are rightful favorites, and I’m backing them as my best bet to win the WBC in my World Baseball Classic Futures and picks.
World Baseball Classic Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| USA | -110 |
| Japan | +350 |
| Dominican Republic | +425 |
| Venezuela | +900 |
| Puerto Rico | +1800 |
| Mexico | +2000 |
| Canada | +5000 |
| South Korea | +6000 |
| Netherlands | +7500 |
| Italy | +7500 |
| Colombia | +7500 |
| Cuba | +10000 |
| Panama | +10000 |
| Chinese Taipei | +15000 |
| Australia | +20000 |
| Israel | +25000 |
| Great Britain | +25000 |
| Czechia | +25000 |
| Nicaragua | +30000 |
| Brazil | +35000 |
Odds via bet365 Sportsbook
World Baseball Classic Futures: Pool Play Breakdown
The United States will play four games in Pool play.
There are four total pool divisions, with the USA being placed in Pool B with Mexico, Italy, Great Britain, and Brazil.
Each pool of five will play in a round-robin format, with the top two teams from each group advancing to the quarterfinals. The rest of the tournament will be played in a knockout bracket form.
Italy and Mexico each have a decent chunk of MLB and former MLB players, so one of them will likely be the second team to escape pool play with the United States.
World Baseball Classic Prediction: USA Betting Breakdown
Let’s check out the roster.
Perhaps the news that Tarik Skubal will pitch in just one WBC game — in pool play against Great Britain — will deter some from taking the Americans.
I’m here to tell you why that’s a bad idea.
Even sans Skubal, the Americans are well represented in the pitching department.
Skubal will toe the rubber in game one of Pool Play (vs Great Britain). But Paul Skenes and Logan Webb will each pitch two games, with Skenes slotting in the potential title game.
That leaves a mixture of Matthew Boyd (an All-Star last season) and Nolan McLean (2.06 ERA for the Mets in 2025) to start the other two games.
Ultimately, Team USA significantly upgraded its rotation since finishing as the runner-up in the 2023 WBC.
In 2023, the rotation consisted mostly of washed-up old dudes — Merrill Kelly, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Lance Lynn.
This year is much different — four of the five starters were All-Stars last year.
The bullpen is no joke, either.
Flamethrowing reliever Mason Miller and multi-time All-Star David Bednar pitching in the 8th and 9th will shorten games. And the team has the arms to play matchups in the other bridge innings — Garrett Whitlock, Griffin Jax, Brad Keller, and Clay Holmes to face righties, while Gabe Speier and Garrett Cleavinger will take care of southpaws.
At the same time, USA manager Mark DeRosa can trot out the scariest lineup in the tournament.
Three-time MVP Aaron Judge will headline the lineup, likely with 2024 AL MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. leading off, while 2025 AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh slotting in behind Judge.
The “worst” projected starter is center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who posted a 109 WRC+ last season. But his elite glove in the middle of the outfield makes up for the lack of power.
Every other hitter posted a 120 wRC+ or better last season — and if you wanted to get crazy, put Buxton in over PCA, and all of the hitters posted over a 120 wRC+.
Team USA has very few weaknesses. It has the two best starting pitchers in the world headlining the rotation, supported by the tournament’s best bullpen and, arguably, best lineup.
The path for the United States to reach the finals is easy, which is baked into the odds.
Assuming the US is No. 1 in Pool B, it’ll get the No. 2 team in Pool A in the quarterfinals and the winner of the other quarterfinal game between the No. 2 team in Pool B and No. 1 in Pool A.
Pool A isn’t very strong — the weakest of the four. Puerto Rico got crushed by insurance issues, while Cuba, Canada, Panama, and Colombia are also in the mix.
Team USA should waltz to the final.
WBC Picks: The Competition
The team that can argue for the best lineup is the Dominican Republic, which bowed out in pool play in the 2023 WBC.
The Dominicans feature a lethal top-five with Fernando Tatis Jr., Ketel Marte, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Junior Caminero.
The back-end of the lineup isn’t bad either, with long-time WBC member Manny Machado, All-Star Geraldo Perdomo, the electric Julio Rodriguez, and one of Agustin Ramirez or Austin Wells catching.
Where the Dominican Republic will struggle is on the mound. While it has a clear ace in Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez, the depth is dicey.
Former All-Stars Luis Severino and Sandy Alcantara look past their prime, and Red Sox hurler Brayan Bello finished his 2025 season on a sour note.
The bullpen could be dominant, but it could also implode quickly.
Camilo Doval, Elvis Alvarado, and Abner Uribe are perfect examples of the potential variability. All three fire absolute gas, but all three have no clue where the ball is going. I trust Carlos Estevez and Dennis Santana, both of whom closed games last season.
The Dominican Republic and Japan sit behind the USA in the market. But only one can reach the final, and the two look destined to meet in the semifinals.
I’m not that bullish on Japan’s roster. In 2023, Japan had a terrifying rotation, featuring Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Shota Imanaga, and Yu Darvish.
This year, Ohtani is hitting, but not pitching, which is a huge subtraction.
The only one from that group pitching this year is Yamamoto. He’s a World Series hero for the Dodgers, but the rest of the rotation is lacking.
I don’t see Japan escaping the Dominican Republic, let alone the US.
World Baseball Classic Best Bet: Team USA
Laying -110 with Team USA sounds crazy.
But the Americans have the best roster and the easiest path to the finals — the team should be heavy favorites in almost every game.
It also has significant advantages over the Dominican Republic and Japan in a potential championship matchup.
I fully expect Team USA to take home the WBC crown.
Pick: USA to win WBC (-110, bet365)
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