Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily baseball betting column that features our MLB predictions and expert picks for Saturday, May 9.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share our favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
New development: each Saturday, Action Network Rookie reliever Matt Trollo will fill in for Sean Zerillo. Exciting!
As always, Zerillo's projections for every MLB game on Saturday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and in our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are Trollo's MLB predictions and picks for Saturday.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Saturday, May 9
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- Marlins F5 -164, 0.82u (Bet to -175)
- Marlins team total over 4.5 (-115), 0.58u (Bet to -130)
- Rockies +165, 1u (Bet to +145)
- Cubs @ Rangers under 8 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to -120)
- White Sox F5 +126, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
- White Sox +120, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
- Mets @ Diamondbacks over 8.5 (-120), 1u (Bet to 9 -110)
Nationals @ Marlins Picks
Despite never running very high strikeout rates (19.3% career), Zack Littell was an occasionally useful pitcher even when allowing too many barrels (9.5%) because he rarely walked anyone (5.5%).
Well, he’s taking things to new extremes this year with just an 11.3 K%, 8.0 BB% and 14% Barrels/BBE, including the second worst hard hit rate of his career (47.1%).
As such, Littell’s best estimator is a 5.33 Bot ERA (82 Pitching+) with contact inclusive indicators running as high as an 8.33 xERA and 8.43 FIP.
Littell doesn’t have a single pitch that grades above an 83 Pitching+, the worst of which may be a slider (81), he throws 37.7% of the time and guess which team has posted the best run value against sliders this year? That would be the Marlins (0.93 wSL/C).
They also have a team 104 wRC+ at home and 103 vs RHP, while the projected lineup has a 107 wRC+ against RHP since last season.
Similar to Littell in the strikeout and walk department during his career, at least Jansen Junk continues to run a near average 12.2 K-BB% with 50.4% of his contact on the ground, resulting in just 4.2% Barrels/BBE and a 3.30 xERA. In fact, a 4.07 SIERA is Junk’s only estimator reaching four, while pitch modeling adores him (3.24 Bot ERA, 110 Pitching+), mostly due to those command/location grades (60 PB, 110 L+).
The Washington projected lineup is below average against RHP since last season (91 wRC+). As a team they are below average on the road (98) and vs RHP (95) this year.
The Marlins also project a seven Fielding Run Value edge over the Nationals, whose projected starting nine has accumulated -7 FRV.
Miami bullpen estimators over the last month are half a run better than Washington too.
Miami is a neutral run environment with a slightly hitter friendly umpire (James Jean) on Saturday.
While the full game at -156 (FD) is fine, I have the F5 -164 (also FD) rated the slightly better play, but also want some exposure to the Miami team total (4.5 -115 Bet 365) at a less risky price.
Chop it up however you like, play a SGP if you can find a boost, but the key point is finding ways to attack Littell.
Pick: Marlins F5 -164, 0.82u (Bet to -175) & Marlins Team Total over 4.5 (-115), 0.58u (Bet to -130)
Rockies @ Phillies Picks
Aaron Nola is coming off six shutout innings in Miami, but has only one other start allowing less than three runs.
Ironically, it was against these Rockies at Coors, but the difference between Nola’s high ERAs in the past and this year is that in 2026, he’s running an underlying career worst 4.42 xERA with the lowest ground ball rate of his career (39.8%) and worst K-BB (16.8%) since his rookie season.
Another clear indicator of decline are Nola’s career worst pitch modeling grades (4.33 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+).
I realize I just mentioned Coors as one of the rare spots where Nola has succeeded this year, but this Colorado offense has shown a bit more spunk than it has in recent seasons, especially against RHP (98 wRC+, projected LU 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last year, 108 wRC+ L30 days overall).
I also realize this is Kyle Freeland on the other side, but his numbers aren’t far off Nola’s this year. His SIERA is only 0.14 worse and his xERA is only 0.18 runs worse.
Additionally, we’re getting road Freeland, where opponents’ wOBA against him is historically 19 points lower than at Coors. Kyle Freeland has been essentially a league average pitcher away from Coors in recent seasons.
The Phillies have also struggled to the tune of just a 73 wRC+ vs LHP this season.
That should positively regress. They aren't that bad, but there are enough warning signs for a large favorite and we haven’t even gotten into Colorado playing the better defense.
The Phillies do have the better bullpen, but they haven’t been great and the full game price is so much better than F5 that it’s worth the risk.
Pick: Rockies +165, 1u (Bet to +145)
Cubs @ Rangers Picks
Globe Life Park's 85 Park Run Factor is tied (Seattle) for lowest in the league via Statcast (rolling three years).
Pick: Under 8 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to -120)
Mariners @ White Sox Picks
To be clear from the start, I’m not trying to convince you Anthony Kay has been anybody’s idea of a good pitcher in his return to the league this year (5.28 SIERA, 7.60 xERA). In fact, he’s been even worse than his opponent, Luis Castillo (4.44, 5.84).
However, what do we always look for in Luis Castillo starts?
Is he at home? No
Is he facing a predominantly left-handed lineup? Seven projected.
LHBs vs Luis Castillo on the road…
Career: .350 wOBA
2026: .364 wOBA
2025: .405 wOBA
The difference is that RHBs are above a .400 wOBA against Castillo too away from Seattle this year.
Castillo was averaging 97.1 mph on his fastball as recently as 2022, but is now down to 94.9 mph.
Here are some additional comparisons:
Team Home/Road wRC+ 2026: White Sox 86/Mariners 81
Team vs RHP 2026: White Sox 92/Mariners 82
Projected LU vs RHP since 2025: White Sox 122/Mariners 111
Projected LU wRC+ L30 days overall: White Sox 128/Mariners 112
There are certainly some sample size issues in the above numbers, but there is some smoke.
The projected Chicago (AL) defense also has a 17 Fielding Run Value edge over Seattle and that's not a sample size blip.
I’m not sure the White Sox should even be dogs here.
I'm splitting a unit between F5 and full game.
Pick: White Sox F5 +126, 0.5u (Bet to +110), White Sox +120, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
Mets @ Diamondbacks Picks
Chase Field has a 110 Park Run Factor whether the roof is open or closed. When it's closed, that environmental factor is static. When it's open, it varies dependent upon the weather.
The Diamondbacks are set to have the roof open on Saturday night as their website (which we are very thankful for and wish every roofed stadium would have) tells us. It's also expected to be above 100 degrees.
Merrill Kelly has been lit up for a 9.95 ERA through four starts back from the IL.
His negative K-BB, 13 barrels (not a misprint) and career worst 92 Pitching+ confirm that he has, in fact, been very bad.
His 11.69 xERA exceeds that ERA and going back to last year, LHBs now have a .338 wOBA and .356 xwOBA against him.
Generating 58.2% of his contact on the ground, Clay Holmes has only allowed 4.1% Barrels/BBE. His 3.78 xERA is very respectable, even more than two runs above his actual results (1.69 ERA).
However, he has just a 10.2 K-BB% and his .210 BABIP and 90.2 LOB% will HEAVILY regress.
It is concerning that both teams have a sub-90 wRC+ vs RHP this season, but 8.5 runs is your standard average MLB total.
This is a park that boosts run production 10% on average and its' going to be above 100 degrees with one pitcher expected to heavily regress closer to average and another who may have to do something soon to prove he still belongs in this league.
Even if they realize it's nuts to open the roof in this heat, we have a closed roof 110 Park Run Factor too.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120), 1u (Bet to 9 -110)
Matt Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, May 9
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Marlins F5 -164, 0.82u (Bet to -175)
- Marlins team total over 4.5 (-115), 0.58u (Bet to -130)
- Rockies +165, 1u (Bet to +145)
- Cubs @ Rangers under 8 (-110), 0.55u (Bet to -120)
- White Sox F5 +126, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
- White Sox +120, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
- Mets @ Diamondbacks over 8.5 (-120), 1u (Bet to 9 -110)
