MLB Odds, Predictions Thursday: Expert Picks (April 18)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.

You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.

Here are my favorite bets for Thursday, April 18.

MLB Odds, Predictions Thursday: Expert Picks (April 18)

Ryne Nelson vs. Logan Webb

Over the past two seasons, Ryne Nelson has had one of the more considerable disconnects between pitch modeling metrics (101 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+ in 2023; 104 and 108, respectively, in 2024) and results (5.31 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 5.24 xFIP across 30 starts).

Nelson is flashing four above-average offerings this season (112 Stuff+ on his fastball, 114 on his changeup, 106 on his slider and 101 on his curveball) compared to just two last season (106 on the slider and 102 on the fastball).

This season, Nelson's four-seam velocity is up a tick (from 94.4 mph to 95.4 mph), and he introduced a cutter (20.8% usage), which has shown encouraging results (.231 xwOBA) despite a 75 Stuff+.

I expect Nelson to pitch toward the more optimistic end of his 2024 FIP projections (range of 4.47 to 4.84).

Logan Webb (projected FIP range of 3.28 to 3.38) is considered one of baseball's best pitchers, and his pitch modeling metrics (111 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+) have improved relative to last season (104 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+).

Webb's sinker (105 Stuff+) and changeup (112) were above-average pitches last season. The Stuff+ on his changeup has improved to 130, and the rating on his slider has improved from 91 to 108, giving Webb three above-average offerings, which he throws between 26% and 36% of the time.

I also project an advantage for the Giants bullpen by nearly four-tenths of a run on season-long ERA. Arizona's best lefty reliever, Joe Mantiply, is almost undoubtedly unavailable after pitching four times in six days.

However, Arizona has the superior position player group. I project its offense for a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a 98 wRC+ for the Giants, and the D-backs' baserunning and defensive advantages add nearly 1.5% to their chances of winning this matchup.

I projected the Snakes as +132 underdogs (43.1% implied odds). Bet Arizona on the moneyline at +143 (41.1% implied) or better.

Bets: Diamondbacks ML (+143 or better)

A.J. Puk vs. Jameson Taillon

Editor's Note: The Marlins-Cubs series opener scheduled for Thursday was postponed. The game will be made up as part of a split doubleheader on Saturday.

Pitchers should have favorable conditions at Wrigley Field on Thursday evening. It will be around 52 degrees and drizzling at first pitch, with 7-to-8 mph winds blowing in from left-center field.

From 2021-2023, Wrigley Field had a 102 Park Factor — 2% above the MLB average run-scoring environment. I'd set this total closer to nine runs on a weather-neutral day. However, the park should play 15-20% below a league-average park in these chilly, rainy and windy conditions.

As a result, I set this total at 7.26 runs and would bet under 8 to -118, or under 7.5 at plus money.

Additionally, while I'm not a system bettor, the conditions did trigger our Action Labs system for Wrigley Field Unders, which has generated a 15% ROI since 2005.

With the sharpening of betting markets since sports betting legalization — and increased attention paid to the effects of weather — the system is just 73-62-8 (54.1%, +$537) with a 3.8% ROI since 2019. Nevertheless, the opener is likely a half-run too high.

Jameson Taillon (projected FIP range of 4.39 to 4.59) will make his 2024 debut after nursing a back injury. He made a few minor league appearances, topping out at 68 pitches.

Chicago used Hayden Wesneski for four innings (and Drew Smyly for two outs) on Wednesday, which helped their bullpen rest after a pair of extra-inning games in Arizona. I'd expect Craig Counsell to deploy his shorter-stint relievers aggressively behind Taillon, who will hope to get through four or five innings.

A.J. Puk (projected FIP range of 3.96 to 4.33) has struggled with his command across three starts (14 BB, 8 K in 10 2/3 innings) after a solid spring (11 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 20 K). Despite a shaky line, pitch modeling metrics saw improvement in Puk's last outing (101 Stuff+, 101 Location+), and I do think he fits within his range of projected outcomes.

Bets: Under 8 (-118 or better or Under 7.5, +100 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, April 18

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• Arizona Diamondbacks (+152, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +143)
• Cleveland Guardians / Boston Red Sox, Under 9.5 (-114, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, -110)
• Miami Marlins / Chicago Cubs, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)