Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, October 14.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 2. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, October 14
Series Moneyline Corner
The Mariners gained 13% toward their AL Pennant probability with their win on Monday, and moved to as high as -700 (87.5% implied) for the series and AL Pennant after Game 2; more than a 40% adjustment in implied probability after closing around +120 (45.5% implied) before Game 1.
Seattle will be favored in each of its three home games, and is favored to sweep the series as a result.
At DraftKings, I show very slight edges on the Blue Jays series price (+500) and on the Mariners to win 4-2 (+500). However, neither price is actionable enough to place a wager, as I'd want closer to +525 (if not +575) to place either at this stage.
The Dodgers also gained approximately 13% toward their respective Pennant probability with their Game 1 win, reopening between -425 (81% implied) and -460 (82.1%) to win the series and the NL Pennant before Game 2. As a result, while my model would lean their direction, -425 is still a -EV bet compared to my projection (-424).
However, if you're looking for an edge on a series prop, I project the Dodgers to win 4-2 (listed at +390 at DraftKings and FanDuel), down to around +365.
Still, I'd rather bet the series game by game, as I do project an edge on one side for Game 2, as outlined below.
Dodgers vs. Brewers
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 105o / -125u | -130 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 105o / -125u | +110 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Freddy Peralta
The Dodgers earned their first win of the season over the Brewers on Monday, outlasting Milwaukee's ninth-inning rally to secure a 2-1 victory.
Still, the box score suggests that the Dodgers should have won by a wider margin — they went 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position and stranded 11 baserunners, compared to Milwaukee's crucial 0-for-1, three-LOB performance, all of which came in the ninth inning after Blake Snell's dominant start.
MLB Simulator — which has the vast majority of baseball games as close, low-scoring contests — projected the likeliest outcome for Game 1 as 7-1 Dodgers. Los Angeles grounded into a pair of unlucky double plays, which included this barrel from Max Muncy:
For my baseball nerds, that play was scored as follows: "Max Muncy grounds into a double play, center fielder Sal Frelick to shortstop Joey Ortiz to catcher William Contreras. Teoscar Hernández out at home. Will Smith out at 3rd." Per Sarah Langs, it's the first such 8-6-2 double play since 2004 (Ken Griffey Jr. robbing Sammy Sosa).
Turning to Tuesday's matchup, it goes without saying that Freddy Peralta (3.47 xERA, 3.85 xFIP, 19.1% K-BB%, 102 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.94 boTERA) is the Brewers ace, and I've previously noted that he's far more comfortable at American Family Field (3.58 xFIP, 21.9% K-BB% at home; 4.15 xFIP, 16.2% K-BB% on the road) than other venues.
Still, I project Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.73 xERA, 3.05 xFIP, 20.8%% K-BB%, 98 Stuff+, 110 Pitching+, 3.49 botERA) as the superior starting pitcher. He's shown virtually no split — home/road (3.08 xFIP, 21.7% K-BB% at home vs. 2.91, 21.1% on the road) or righty/lefty (2.93 xFIP, 21.4% K-BB% vs. lefties and 3.03, 21.4% vs. righties) through two MLB seasons.
Conversely, Peralta is far more effective against righties (3.34 xFIP, 24.6% K-BB% in 2025 and 3.44/24.2% career) as compared to lefties (4.38 xFIP, 13.8% K-BB% in 2025 and 4.14/17% career), which complicates his usage against the Dodgers' lineup.
The Dodger bullpen is better rested going into Game 2. Roki Sasaki was shaky in NLCS Game 1 after throwing 36 pitches in Game 4 against the Phillies, as he hadn't previously thrown more than 12 in any outing since returning to the majors in September, and I'd say he's unlikely to pitch in Game 2.
Still, the Dodgers added Ben Casparius (3.55 xERA, 4.36 xFIP, 15% K-BB%, 114 Pitching+, 3.42 boTERA) and Justin Wrobleski (3.33 xERA, 2.87 xFIP, 21.1% K-BB%, 109 Pitching+, 3.51 botERA) to their NLCS roster. They should have adequate depth — including lefty Alex Vesia (3.08 xERA, 3.57 xFIP, 24.5% K-BB%, 111 Pitching+, 3.42 botERA) — to help manage the late innings behind their most efficient starting pitcher.
Meanwhile, the Brewers deployed a shaky-looking Abner Uribe for the second time in three days, and also used Trevor Megill and Aaron Ashby for the third time in five days, and Chad Patrick for a fourth time in six days. Moreover, they have already given the Dodgers' hitters one look at each of their best relievers, and the advantage tips toward the hitter with each additional head-to-head plate appearance in an extended series.
Typically, I'd give Milwaukee a clear bullpen advantage. Still, the Dodgers could have superior pitching in the late innings on Tuesday, particularly since Milwaukee will be seeing their relief pitchers for the first time.
The Dodgers didn't have Max Muncy for any of their six matchups with Milwaukee during the regular season. Both Freddie Freeman (94 wRC+) and Mookie Betts (62 wRC+) were in their worst stretches of the year before both rebounded in August (171 and 115 wRC+, respectively) and September (129 and 144 wRC+, respectively). Their bullpen is also in better shape than it was for much of the season, as they have consolidated their surplus of starting pitchers into relief roles.
Yamamoto's lack of splits alleviates concerns surrounding his last start against the Phillies (4 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 2 K) in the NLDS, and the shortest start of his season, when he couldn't make it out of the first inning in Milwaukee (2/3 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 0 K).
Yamamoto faced Peralta in that July outing, and closed as between -137 and -145 favorites compared to my projected line of -125, with Michael Conforto, Hyeseong Kim, Miguel Rojas, and James Outman hitting 6th to 9th in the lineup (Muncy on the IL and both Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernandez on the bench); their position player group and bullpen are both better now than they were then.
Still, my model set the Dodgers as -136 favorites (57.8% implied) for Tuesday and projected a total of 7.37 runs.
As a result, I would bet on the Dodgers to take a 2-0 series lead on the moneyline at odds of -130 or better, considering the market has already indicated that the line should be -135 at a minimum, and likely higher, given the Dodgers' lineup improvement relative to the first iteration of this matchup.
Furthermore, I would bet the under 6.5 on Yamamoto's strikeout prop, which our Action Labs projection set at 5.7, at -120 or better.
The market expects Yamamoto to face around 23 hitters (averaged 22.8 this season), but I could see a quicker hook the day before an off-day, and project closer to 5.75 K's.
Some back-of-the-envelope math: if you multiply 23 batters by Yamamoto's strikeout rate (29.4%), you get 6.76 strikeouts. However, if you multiply 23 batters by Milwaukee's post-deadline strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (20.1%), you get 4.6 strikeouts, giving an average closer to 5.7.
I'm not too excited to bet against Yamamoto, considering I'm on the Dodgers' moneyline. Still, his strikeout prop under is worth a small poke, and you can consider a little reverse correlation SGP (+299 at FanDuel).
Pick: Dodgers ML (-130 or Better) | Yoshinobu Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120 or Better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, October 14
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- Los Angeles Dodgers (-119, 1u) at DraftKings; bet to -130
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+102, 0.2u) at FanDuel; bet to -120
