MLB PrizePicks for Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 1 (Monday, October 16)
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Evan Longoria
- Looking for the top MLB PrizePicks plays for Diamondbacks-Phillies Game 1? We've got you covered.
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The NLCS kicks off this evening as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1. Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Diamondbacks-Phillies tonight.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Game 1.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Check out our exclusive new user offers redeemable with Action’s PrizePicks Promo Code.
J.T. Realmuto Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona and could be a good candidate to back on Monday.
Likely finishing just outside of the NL Cy Young race, Gallen produced a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 34 starts this season. This success continued into the postseason, going 2-0 with 3.18 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
That brings us to J.T. Realmuto, who has remained beneath this number in half of his playoff games thus far. While we have seen a true 50/50 against this figure, he could be a good candidate to pick against when facing Gallen.
Through four career plate appearances against the right-hander, Realmuto is 0-for-3 with a walk. His underlying metrics over that small sample size are also poor, posting a .048 xBA, .050 xSLG and .206 xwOBA.
Situationally, this game presents a tough spot for the Phillies' catcher as his splits drop by roughly 14% this season when facing right-handed pitching and a whopping 65% when hitting at Citizens Bank Park.
Evan Longoria Less Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We're also going to fade a pair of Arizona hitters against right-hander Zack Wheeler, who takes the mound for the Phillies.
Like Gallen, Wheeler put together a strong campaign as he went 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. Also like Gallen, Wheeler's success has continued into the postseason as he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP through two starts.
Regression should not be a concern with Wheeler, who ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, Chase%, BB% and Barrel%.
The first Diamondbacks hitter to fade is Evan Longoria, who has failed to surpass this figure in three of his five playoff games. Over that span, Longoria owns a mere .167 BA, .222 SLG and .422 OPS.
This tough stretch of hitting could continue against Wheeler, a pitcher whom Longoria possesses a .222 BA, .333 SLG and .236 wOBA against through nine career plate appearances. His splits also drop by approximately 5% when facing right-handed pitching this year and 18% when hitting on the road.
Geraldo Perdomo Less Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade a guy who hits directly behind Longoria in the batting order: Geraldo Perdomo.
Now could be a time to sell high on the switch hitter after he homered against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLDS. Prior to that outing, Perdomo failed to surpass this figure in six of his previous eight games.
Over that stretch (including the home run game), he owns a fade-worthy .087 BA, .217 SLG and .467 OPS. Like Longoria, Perdomo possesses a poor track record against Wheeler, going 1-for-7 with three strikeouts.
Wheeler has been mowing down lineups all postseason, and the bottom of Arizona's order shouldn't give him any issues either.
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