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MLB PrizePicks Props, Plays: 5 Picks, Including Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda & Bobby Witt Jr. (Tuesday, September 20)

MLB PrizePicks Props, Plays: 5 Picks, Including Carlos Correa, Jose Miranda & Bobby Witt Jr. (Tuesday, September 20) article feature image
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Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota shortstop Carlos Correa

Tuesday’s MLB slate features 16 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.

Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.

Enter PrizePicks.

With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.

Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.

A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.

You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.

Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.


What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.


Carlos Correa Under 1.5 Total Bases

We have the first matchup of this three-game AL Central intradivisional series with the Kansas City Royals hosting the Minnesota Twins. We will be fading a couple of Twins hitters, who are slated to go against right-handed veteran Zack Greinke.

Through 23 starts this season, Greinke is 4-9 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. While those numbers are not the strongest, he enters this game in good form Over his last five starts, he boasts a 2.39 ERA.

The first Minnesota batter we are fading in this game is Carlos Correa.

Going under this total in three of his last five games, he may struggle to get over this number against Greinke. Across 23 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Correa possesses a mere .174 BA, .174 SLG, and .153 wOBA.

That is not a small sample size as Greinke has clearly just had his number. While we could theoretically see some slight positive regression in this specific matchup, it should not be too drastic as Correa possesses a .237 xBA, .366 xSLG, and .260 xwOBA over those 23 at-bats.

While Correa has had a strong year, his splits take about a 17% dip when facing right-handed pitchers as he has posted a .284 BA, .443 SLG, and .794 OPS.

Jose Miranda Under 1.5 Total Bases

The other Twins hitter we are fading in this contest is Jose Miranda. A streaky hitter, Miranda typically alternates every single game between going over or under this prop.

For this specific matchup, we are going with the under. While Miranda is 2-5 against Greinke in his career, his metrics from those five plate appearances suggest slight regression as he has posted a .334 xBA, .393 xSLG, and .306 xwOBA.

When facing right-handed pitchers this year, his splits take about a 10% dip to a .273/.407/.747 slash line. With Greinke entering this game in better form, I would not be shocked if Miranda is just held to a single or worse.

Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases

We are also backing a couple of Royals hitters in this game as they are slated to go against right-hander Dylan Bundy. Through six career starts against Kansas City, Bundy is 0-5 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

The first Royals hitter we are backing is Bobby Witt Jr.

Going over this total in five of his last eight games, Witt Jr. should be able to keep It going in this matchup.

When facing right-handed pitchers this season, he possesses a .248/.419/.714 slash line. While those are not the strongest numbers, his metrics suggest that a strong finish to the season is around the corner as he boasts a .254 xBA, .317 xwOBA, and .435 xSLG.

Salvador Perez Over 1.5 Total Bases

The other Royals hitter we are backing in this contest is Salvador Perez. He has been on a tear since the beginning of September, currently riding a five-game hitting streak and going over this total in seven of his last 12 outings.

We should expect this trend to continue against Bundy, a guy he has been extremely successful against. Through 15 career at-bats against the right-hander, Perez boasts a .400 BA, .867 SLG, and .532 wOBA.

His metrics are also very strong across those 15 plate appearances, posting a .377 xBA, .702 xSLG, and .457 xwOBA. Always a threat at the plate, Perez boasts a .321 xwOBA and .472 xSLG this season.

Carlos Carrasco Over 4.5 Strikeouts

We have the second matchup of this three-game series with the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers hosting the NL East’s New York Mets. Taking the mound for New York in this outing is right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who should be an excellent candidate to back in the strikeout department.

Through 26 starts this season, Carrasco is 15-6 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Since returning from his oblique injury three starts ago, he is 2-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

This strong stretch of pitching should continue against Milwaukee. Across his four career starts against the Brewers, Carrasco has collected at least five strikeouts three times.

Between the 78 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Milwaukee roster possesses a troubling 28.2 K%. Since Aug. 1, the Brewers rank in the bottom half of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.

Going over this total in eight of his last 11 starts, Carrasco should be able to keep it rolling in this game.

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