Saturday MLB Player Prop Betting Picks: JT Brubaker a Solid Bet To Go Over Total vs. Padres (April 30)
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: JT Brubaker
- With plenty of interesting player prop options, our analyst has his eyes on two totals today.
- Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals and JT Brubaker for the Pirates have value in their respective matchups.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown and analysis from Saturday's MLB player props market.
For this Saturday slate, I’ve got my eyes set on two starting pitchers as they have each performed admirably to begin the season.
However, when it comes to handicapping their performances, regression in both ways will play a factor.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into my top prop picks for today’s slate.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)
|Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals||Cardinals -158|
|First Pitch||2:15 p.m. ET|
Miles Mikolas has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season as he’ll enter this start with a sparkling 1.21 ERA. Mikolas has produced a ton of soft contact as he’s in the top 22 percent of the league in average exit velocity and in the top 15 percent in hard-hit rate.
The consistent soft contact has kept his pitch count low and allowed him to get deeper into games than many other starters have to this point. However, he has not missed many bats this season as Mikolas is in the bottom seven percent of the league in whiff rate and the bottom third in strikeout rate.
That whiff and strikeout rate is what I’m focusing on as he’s due for some strikeout regression. Yes, Mikolas has gone over this total in three of his four starts, but his strikeouts per nine is sitting at 7.25, which is right above his career average of 6.65.
While the Snakes do not have the most potent lineup, they’ll throw multiple left-handed bats at Mikolas, and he is significantly worse against lefties in his career. Lefties have hit .273 off Mikolas historically, while righties have hit only .240.
In addition, Mikolas’ career strikeout rate against lefties is 17.1 percent and 18.5. Neither of those rates is staggering and should come to fruition in this matchup.
Pick: Under 4.5 (-134)
JT Brubaker Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-136)
|San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates||Padres -168|
|First Pitch||6:35 p.m. ET|
We’re staying in the NL Central as the JT Brubaker will be up against one of the hotter offenses in the National League. Brubaker’s 6.46 ERA does not instill much confidence, however, his expected ERA is 3.90.
He has pitched far better than his peripheral numbers show, and a big part of that is his increased ability to miss bats. As a result, Brubaker is in the top third of the league in whiff rate and is in the top half of the league in strikeout rate.
Another metric that displays that is his K/9. Brubaker’s strikeouts per nine innings is a shade below 10, which is a career-best mark for him.
He may be facing a solid lineup, but this number is a tick too low as he’s gone over it in three of his four starts this season. The best part about it is we may not need a quality start to go over the total as he hasn’t gone past five innings this year.
Pick: Over 3.5 (-136)