The Twins visit the Athletics with a first pitch from Sutter Health Park scheduled for 9:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Twins are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line, while the Athletics are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Athletics prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, odds and more.
Twins vs Athletics Prediction
- Twins vs Athletics Pick: Over 10 (-120)
My Twins vs Athletics best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Athletics Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 10 -120o / -102u | -130 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 10 -120o / -102u | +122 |
- Twins vs Athletics moneyline: Twins -130, Athletics +122
- Twins vs Athletics over/under: 10 (-120o / -102u)
- Twins vs Athletics spread: Twins -1.5 (+114), Athletics +1.5 (-137)
Twins vs Athletics Probable Pitchers
| Connor Prielipp (LHP, MIN) | Stat | J.T. Ginn (RHP, ATH) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | W-L | 8-8 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 5.57 / 4.29 | ERA / xERA | 3.60 / 3.93 |
| 4.11 / 3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 4.13 / 4.22 |
| 15.4% | K-BB% | 11.4% |
| 42.5% | GB% | 45.8% |
| .319 | BABIP | .262 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 103 | Location+ | 102 |
Twins vs Athletics MLB Betting Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
Things are heading south in a hurry for the Twins, who are still very much in the mix for a playoff spot in the American League despite their sub-.500 record.
They've lost four out of five and will now send rookie Connor Prielipp to the hill, hoping to win their mid-week series against the Athletics and head back in the right direction.
The left-hander has showcased some of the talent that earned him some buzz entering the season as a previously un-touted prospect. He's had success right away in the strikeout department, putting away 24.8% of the batters he's faced thus far. He's also pitched to a fair .238 Expected Batting Average on a wide array of contact, mainly in the air where his fly-ball rate is a couple points greater than average.
The bad, however, has been that he's very easy to figure out. He's walked a poor 9.4% of batters on the year and 12.5% this month, and his xBA has rocketed up to .268 in August as well as he hits the proverbial rookie wall.
The Twins can't afford to see their young lefty slow down, and Prielipp surely can't afford to give up too many hard-hit balls in the air this time around playing in Sacramento.
It's not a terribly friendly park for someone like him, and it's not exactly the best time to square up with the Athletics, either, on account of their 11th-ranked 106 wRC+ in the last two weeks.
Athletics Betting Preview
The Athletics will counter with right-hander J.T. Ginn, who's been solid this season. He may populate the bases a bit on account of his 1.23 WHIP, but he's kept his ERA at a friendly 3.60 en route to an 8-8 record.
Ginn has been pretty much the opposite of Prielipp, pitching to ground balls and few strikeouts from the right side. He does have issues walking guys, though he's walked just six in 23 frames this month, but around that there's not a ton to hate.
His contact is pretty friendly with a 35.1% hard-hit rate and 5.4% barrel rate, meaning he's rolling up plenty of soft grounders. That's led to a .237 xBA and .357 xSLG, both of which are firmly below the league average.
Of course, with a ground-baller, you're generally going to see the xBA sit higher than the xSLG relative to the league, so there's nothing to fret about. He's better than half the pitchers in baseball in both categories.
Ginn has also given up just one home run in his last five outings, and while there have been a smattering of walks and hits, he's allowed few runs to score.
While it might seem unsustainable, I'd point you to the fact that Ginn had a 73.2% strand rate last year and owns a 74.1% this year.
That's right around the league average, and while his BABIP is due for some regression, the fact of the matter is that the xBA paints a clearer picture, and the only thing to bring about real regression would be fewer stranded runners.
Twins vs Athletics Pick, Betting Analysis
The Twins are probably where they are today because they sit second in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position. They've coupled their .275 average in the split with a wonderful 10.6% walk rate, and have turned into a nearly impossible team to stop when they start populating the bases with runners.
That's probably the last thing you want to hear if you're hoping for a good start out of Ginn. He's been great at pitching out of trouble this season and inducing friendly contact, but he's had some glaring issues with walks and hasn't been impervious to giving up hits thanks to his ground-balling ways.
Now, the Twins haven't taken many walks in the last two weeks, but they've hit .261. They're staying afloat with situational hitting; their power certainly hasn't been there of late.
This team, which loves to put the ball in play and move around runners, could be in a great spot against Ginn, and perhaps with their patient eye in RISP situations, they can start to find more walks against a slightly erratic Ginn.
Prielipp could be in for some trouble of his own, particularly with the Athletics combining power hitting and great discipline over the last two weeks. They're striking out just 20.3% of the time with a 9.4% walk rate, and their ISO sits at a nice .164.
I foresee trouble for both pitchers, albeit in different ways. This is a park for offense, anyway.
Pick: Over 10 (-120)
