MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Logan Gilbert and Max Scherzer (Monday, September 19)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer
Waltz into another work week with my two favorite MLB pitcher props, courtesy of our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
|Mariners @ Angels|
|First Pitch||4:07 p.m. ET|
This is mostly a play fading the Angels. Once the calendar flipped from April to May and the Angels went on that 14-game losing streak, the floor fell out of this lineup.
The Angels strike out at the highest rate in baseball, 26.9% of the time against RHPs. They've allowed two of the last three opposing pitchers to go over their strikeout total.
When it comes to Logan Gilbert, one of Seattle's aces, he's managed at least six strikeouts in four of five starts against the Halos since the beginning of 2021. Gilbert has fanned 33 Angels in his last 27 1/3 innings against them.
Logan Gilbert 5th and 6th Ks. pic.twitter.com/7qNHosV0rF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 7, 2022
The Action Labs Player Props tool marks Gilbert for 6.8 strikeouts today, giving us plenty of value to bet his over 5.5 prop today.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Max Scherzer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
|Mets @ Brewers|
|First Pitch||7:40 p.m. ET|
The worry with Max Scherzer is if he's still nursing that injury that landed him on the IL. However, RotoWire's Mark Barner seems to think he'll be without a pitch count in this start.
I've bet #Mets Max Scherzer over 5.5 strikeouts (-175 DK). No, not the best odds. However, the #Brewers have struck out the fifth-most times in #MLB. Scherzer missed the minimum 15 days on the IL, so I'm not expecting a pitch limit.
— Mike Barner (@rotomikebarner) September 19, 2022
If that's the case, then this line is far too low for Mad Max.
Scherzer has cashed this line in 16 of his 20 starts this season and in 43 of 53 dating back to the beginning of 2021. The latter's 81% hit rate should imply -430 odds to the over.
Scherzer is still one of the elite swing-and-miss pitchers in the game. His 14.8% swinging strike rate ranks above the 90th percentile of pitchers this season, and he's still posting a whiff rate above 30%.
The Brewers are going to be helpless against Scherzer. They've posted the ninth-highest strikeout rate this season, a number that's only gotten worse as the year has progressed.
When Scherzer took on Milwaukee in May last season, he struck out 10 on just 89 pitches. He forced 18 swinging strikes and a 34% CSW rate.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Scherzer for 8.8 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 6.2.
I think that might be a little conservative, as long as Scherzer is given the necessary leash.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-155)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10