MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: 5 Picks, Including Alex Bregman and Mookie Betts (Saturday, September 3)
Michael Owens/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts
- There's another loaded MLB slate today and plenty of props are on the board.
- Our analyst has identified five plays on his PrizePicks card, with all coming from Astros-Angels and Padres-Dodgers.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the top PrizePicks props from today in Major League Baseball.
Saturday’s MLB slate features 15 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Saturday, September 3
Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Through 23 starts this season, Garcia is 11-8 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. While those numbers are “take it or leave it,” his metrics suggest that we should expect better outings from the right-hander.
Garcia boasts a .296 xwOBA, .227 xBA and .384 xSLG this season. This positive regression could be realized against the Angels, against whom he has been excellent.
Across his two starts against Los Angeles this season, Garcia is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Collecting seven strikeouts in each of those two outings, we should expect him to go over this total once again.
Since August 1, the Angels rank just 29th in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitchers. Additionally, Garcia has gone over this number in eight of his last 13 starts (62%).
Chas McCormick Over 0.5 Total Bases
We are also backing a couple of Houston hitters in this contest as they are slated to go against right-hander Shohei Ohtani. These backings are not a fade of him specifically by any means, especially considering how excellent Ohtani has been on the mound once again this season.
However, because of that fact, there are a couple of props that are set too low. The first of these props is Chas McCormick, who we need to register just one hit in this game to cash.
Collecting at least one hit in nine of his last 12 games (75%), McCormick should have a good shot at doing so once again in this matchup. Through seven career plate appearances against Ohtani, McCormick possesses a .286 BA, .429 SLG, and .306 wOBA.
It has been a solid campaign for McCormick as he boasts a .331 xwOBA and .433 SLG, so asking for just one hit in this game should not be too much.
Alex Bregman Hitter Fantasy Score Over 5.5
The other Astros hitter we are backing in this game is Alex Bregman. This line is another over-adjustment of which we should take advantage.
Bregman is having yet another good season, posting a .266 BA, .475 SLG and .846 OPS. Entering this contest in good form, Bregman has gone over this fantasy total in six of his last nine games (67%).
We should expect this trend to continue in this matchup. Through 14 career plate appearances against Ohtani, Bregman boasts a .357 BA, .429 SLG and .341 wOBA.
When facing right-handed pitching this year, Bregman’s splits jump by over 30% (.293/.532/.920).
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases
Through 24 starts this season, Manaea is 7-7 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Not only has it been a tough year for the left-hander, but he has been in particularly poor form recently.
Over Manaea’s last five starts, he is 1-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. One of those outings was against Los Angeles, a game in which he allowed eight runs on 10 hits in four innings.
The first Dodgers hitter we are backing in this contest is Mookie Betts. Entering this matchup in great form, Betts has reached at least two total bases in five of his last eight games (63%).
We should expect this trend to continue tonight. Through 24 career plate appearances against Manaea, Betts boasts a .364 BA, .818 SLG and .503 wOBA.
Betts has absolutely crushed left-handers this year, producing a .325 BA, .634 SLG, and 1.025 OPS.
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 Runs
The other Dodgers hitter we are backing is Freddie Freeman. Through five career plate appearances against Manaea, Freeman is 2-for-5 with a homer and a single.
We should not expect any regression in this matchup as he boasts a .326 xBA, .874 xSLG and .549 xwOBA through those five plate appearances. Additionally, Freeman enters this game in good form as he has gone over this total in six of his last nine games (67%).
Freeman’s metrics are incredible this season and amongst the best in baseball, producing a .398 xwOBA, .314 xBA, and .537 xSLG. Going against a struggling Manaea, Freeman should have multiple opportunities to cross the plate.