MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Kris Bryant & More
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kris Bryant (Rockies)
- Alex Hinton gets you ready for the weekend with three MLB player props for Friday night.
- Hinton is targeting an ace in Arlington, a hitter who can capitalize off David Peterson in Queens and Kris Bryant in Colorado.
- Continue reading for all three picks.
Yesterday was a positive day for us, and we were one Padres hit away from a clean sweep.
I have three more plays for today, and Friday night kicks off what should be a great weekend of baseball. There are two rematches from last year’s playoffs — Mariners-Blue Jays and Phillies-Astros.
Tonight also marks the first meeting this season between the Braves and Mets after they were locked in an epic NL East race last season.
They are currently the top two teams in the NL East once again, with the Braves currently holding a two-game lead. The Mets will give the ball to lefty David Peterson, which should set up well for Austin Riley.
In Texas, two of the most dominant starting pitchers in MLB are involved in the Yankees-Rangers series.
Last night, Gerrit Cole helped the Yankees grab game one by allowing just two runs and recording eight Ks in 6 2/3 innings. Tonight, Jacob deGrom will face a Yankees lineup that will likely be without Aaron Judge.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks and Rockies should have some scoring battles at Coors Field. Kris Bryant has been hot of late and he has a strong track record against Merrill Kelly.
Let’s dive into tonight’s slate.
MLB Player Props For Friday, April 28
Austin Riley Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-130)
|Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
When I check the slate, one of the first things I look for is what pitcher the Braves will be facing on that day.
The Braves have made a habit of beating up on left-handed pitchers, and Riley is a big reason why. The Braves slugger is slashing .333/.441/.704 with three home runs and eight runs batted in against left-handed pitching.
This comes a year after he slashed .329/.413/.1.084 with 11 home runs and 29 runs batted in against lefties.
Tonight, Riley gets Peterson; he’s 8-for-16 with three doubles against Peterson in his career. He enters play today on a three-game hitting streak, and he has a hit in four of his last six games.
Between this prop and his total bases, I like both for Riley. However, I settled on his hits + runs + runs batted in part because Riley bats third in the Braves’ lineup.
Leadoff man Ronald Acuna Jr. also hits lefties very well (and frankly everyone in the lineup does), and I expect him to be in scoring position.
If Riley gets an RBI base hit that drives in Acuna — or another teammate — he will cash this over in one play.
Speaking of which, Riley has gone over this line in 17-of-26 games this season. With a 65% hit rate this season, Riley is in good position to continue that trend tonight.
Pick: Austin Riley Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-130)
Jacob deGrom Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-124)
|New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers|
|First Pitch||8:05 p.m. ET|
The struggle with betting strikeout props for aces is finding value. While they are capable of getting 9, 10 or 11 strikeouts in any given start, those are still high numbers to record and usually require six-to-seven innings of work.
Just yesterday, I mentioned that I liked the over on Shohei Ohtani’s strikeouts, but the value was not there. He ultimately finished with eight strikeouts, going under by one.
However, another pitcher that can reach those high totals is deGrom.
In his first season in Texas, deGrom has been his usual dominant self. He has 43 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings and has a staggering 14.5 K/9 average.
He ranks in the 98th percentile in both strikeout percentage and whiff percentage, and in the 97th percentile in chase rate.
DeGrom has gone over this line in three of his first five starts, including 11 strikeouts in two of those starts.
Tonight, he faces a New York Yankees lineup that ranks seventh in strikeout percentage (25.2%) against right-handed pitchers.
Yankees slugger Aaron Judge left last night’s game with a hip injury, and while it is not expected to be serious, he is not likely to play tonight.
Taking Judge out of the Yankees’ lineup does remove a likely target for deGrom; he has four strikeouts against Judge in five career at-bats. However, the Yankees still have several potential strikeout targets.
DJ LeMahieu is the toughest Yankee to strike out, but he has eight Ks against deGrom in 17 at-bats.
Anthony Rizzo has a strong track record against deGrom, but he still has four strikeouts in 27 at-bats.
Additionally, the Yankees were already without Giancarlo Stanton and have been struggling to score runs.
Without Stanton and Judge, I expect deGrom to dominate the Yankees’ lineup. That will help him manage his pitch count, go deeper into the game and increase our chances of him cashing this over.
Pick: Jacob DeGrom Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-124)
Kris Bryant Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
|Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m.|
This season, Bryant is hitting .312 with three home runs and eight runs batted in. He currently ranks 19th in MLB in batting average.
Bryant has recorded two hits (+185) in each of his last three games. Another two-hit game from Bryant will also give him two total bases.
Bryant may just get both of those hits off Kelly. In his career against Kelly, Bryant is 8-for-19 with three doubles and a triple.
A double or triple will cover this line on one hit. That is also more likely for Bryant at home.
Bryant’s batting average (.314 at home, .310 on the road) is roughly the same. However, his OPS is .957 at home compared .751 on the road.
Coors Field has long been a haven for extra-base hits, particularly with the gaps in left-center field.
Bryant has four extra-base hits in 35 at-bats at home compared to four in 58 at-bats on the road.
Another one tonight will give him two bases.
Pick: Kris Bryant Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
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