MLB Player Props, Picks: How to Bet Bobby Witt Jr., Marcus Semien, Julio Rodriguez
Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Semien (Rangers)
The Yankees limped into Atlanta after blowing a five-run lead in Miami on Sunday. As expected, the Braves jumped all over them en route to a 11-3 victory.
Tonight may be more of the same with Luis Severino getting the ball, so Matt Olson may take advantage.
The Rangers soundly beat the Angels, 11-0, last night in a game where they had 24 baserunners to just two for the Angels. Marcus Semien led the way with a big night from the leadoff spot. He may be in position to score again tonight.
Two of the game's most exciting young players are facing off, with Julio Rodriguez's Mariners taking on Bobby Witt Jr.'s Royals. The Royals won a wild one, 7-6, last night, and Rodriguez and Witt Jr. combined for six hits. They may just shine once again tonight.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, August 15
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases -120
Last week, we backed Olson for an RBI and cashed when he drove in a run for the 11th consecutive game. Olson's streak ended, but that doesn't mean that he's cooled off.
He'll enter play today on a six-game hitting streak, and he also has a hit in 18 of his last 20 games. Olson also has had eight multi-hit games in that span, including last night's matchup.
Clarke Schmidt started last night, and he's struggled against left-handed hitters — just like Severino. Left-handed hitters are slashing .373/.436/.701 with 14 doubles and 10 home runs against Severino.
Just to illustrate how much Severino has struggled against left-handed hitters, FanDuel has Michael Harris II at -550 to record a hit tonight.
Olson leads MLB with 43 home runs, with 34 coming against right-handers. He also has 15 doubles, two triples and a 1.039 OPS against right-handed pitchers as well.
Olson has five home runs and a double in his last 10 games.
I love to back him on Dinger Tuesday, and he's +250 to hit a home run on FanDuel. However, he hit this line in 12 of his last 20 games as well.
Severino has struggled in the first inning, so it's likely that Olson — who's hit cleanup since June — will get a plate appearance in the first inning. That'll give him an opportunity for five plate appearances, like he had last night.
That should help Olson hit this over, but he may not need all five plate appearances if he comes through with an extra-base hit early off of Severino.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 via DraftKings)
Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Runs Scored -140
I like this spot for Semien, and I was considering him for the hits + runs +runs batted in combo.
While the odds are more favorable (+120), DraftKings has the line at 2.5 hits + runs + runs batted in. In eight of his last 10 games, Semien has two hits + runs + runs batted in, but he has three in just four of those games.
Last night, with seven, he cashed both lines quite easily, and he may do so again. However, I'm going to focus on the runs portion of that combo tonight.
Semien is third in MLB with 95 runs scored. He's scored a run in six of his last 10 games, and he's almost at the same rate (59%) for the whole season.
In the four games in the Bay Area where Semien didn't score a run, the Rangers averaged 2.2 runs per game. However, when the Rangers are rolling on offense, Semien is typically right in the middle of it.
Last night, Semien drove himself in with a three-run home run in the seventh inning.
He's 5-for-18 with a walk against Lucas Giolito, so it's reasonable to expect him to be on base. Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia all have at least 63 runs batted in and typically bat 2-through-4 in the Rangers' lineup. Garcia ranks third in MLB in the category.
We backed Lucas Giolito in his last start, and he pitched six innings against the Giants. However, he's allowed 12 runs in his last two starts, including nine against the Braves.
We don't need him to give up nine runs tonight, but one to Marcus Semien would be nice.
Pick: Marcus Semien Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-140 via DraftKings)
Julio Rodriguez/Bobby Witt Jr. One Hit Parlay -115
While the Mariners couldn't pull off a victory last night, Rodriguez played a big part in the comeback, as he recorded two hits and four runs batted in.
Rodriguez has a hit in 18 of his past 21 games, and over the past month, he's hitting .270 with six home runs and 22 runs batted in.
Rodriguez is 2-for-3 against tonight's starter Jordan Lyles, who'll bring a 6.13 ERA and .246 opposing batting average against right-handed hitters into the clash.
Lyles' teammate — Bobby Witt Jr. — has been scalding hot of late. Witt went 4-for-5 with a home run last night. He now has a hit in 14 of his past 15 games. In that span, he's hitting .406 with five homers and 17 runs batted in.
Rodriguez and Witt Jr. were both heralded prospects just like tonight's starter, Emerson Hancock.
With Hancock making just his second big league start, Witt hasn't faced him. However, with most rookie starting pitchers, I generally expect them to go five innings — like Hancock did in his first start.
Witt might get a couple of opportunities against the Mariners' bullpen if we still need a hit from him.
I'm pivoting to bet365 here, as this combo is -160 on FanDuel and -165 on DraftKings. However, if you want more juice, you can parlay them for two total bases at +260 on bet365 and +255 on DraftKings.
Rodriguez has nine multi-hit games in the last three weeks, while Witt Jr. has eight in that span.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez/Bobby Witt Jr. One Hit Parlay (-115 via bet365)
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