We have a very short five-game slate today, with these matchups:
- Padres vs Braves
- Twins vs Guardians
- Rays vs Blue Jays
- Diamondbacks vs Cardinals
- Royals vs Tigers
Our staff got together and put together a best bet for each of the five matchups.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:15 PM | |
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 3:07 PM | |
  | 5:15 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Padres vs Braves Best Bet
By Sean Paul
The Braves were -120 on Wednesday and are nearly -230 on Thursday.
Sure, that's the Chris Sale factor, but I view these two squads much closer than the line would indicate.
It's tough to bet against Sale, but it's not like the Braves are overwhelmingly dominant when he pitches. It's been a toss-up for his last three months of outings. I can't justify laying such a big number when the Braves are just average when Sale pitches.
Griffin Canning will give up a few runs, but the Padres could get one or two on Sale and ambush this inconsistent Braves bullpen.
Give me the underdog.
Read Paul's full Padres vs Braves betting preview here:
Pick: Padres ML (+200 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Twins vs Guardians Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
I think Byron Buxton will have a massive day at the plate today.
Despite Gavin Williams finishing his 2025 campaign in stellar form, with the fourth-year starter having recorded a magnificent 3.06 ERA across 31 starts, the 26-year-old has struggled mightily to repeat last year’s successes in 2026.
In his first 20 starts in 2026, Williams has recorded a troublesome 4.00 ERA on the mound, having surrendered 53 earned runs in under 120 frames on the bump.
Buxton just returned from the 15-day IL, but he's picked up where he left off, having recorded four hits across his past seven plate appearances.
He's also done well against Williams in the past, with four hits across 10 lifetime head-to-head at-bats (including a double and two RBIs).
While the Guardians’ right-hander often elects to challenge right-handed hitters with his four-seam fastball, this is a pitch that Buxton consistently thrives against with an optimal swing-path tailor-made for smashing high-velocity pitches.
Williams has also struggled with command at times throughout his 2026 campaign thus far, which has resulted in his frequently missing his spots, which could prove fatal if he leaves his heater or slider over the heart of the plate versus a slugger of Buxton’s caliber.
Read Minion's full Twins vs Guardians betting preview here:
Pick: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Rays vs Blue Jays Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
This matchup features a pair of pitchers who are difficult to get a handle on right now.
For the second straight season, Ian Seymour began the year in the bullpen before a transition to the rotation, which seemed long overdue when he struck out 27 of 65 batters with just a pair of walks in 18 innings, but has proven much less successful over his last two starts:
6.1 IP – 32 BF – 8 H – 9 R (8 ER) – 3 HR – 5 BB – 7 K
Seymour’s 20.3 K-BB% dropped to 18.7% with those two outings, but still 23.5% since moving into a starting role. However, he’s also allowed eight barrels in those six starts with only 29.5% of his contact on the ground.
Last year, the Blue Jays were a nightmare for LHPs, but this year they own just an 80 wRC+ in that situation. The projected lineup is up to 99, but with a marginal .160 ISO. Not terrible, but not what you’d expect here.
That same projected lineup is also averaging a mere 71 wRC+ over the last 30 days, with only Luis Urias’s small sample above 116 and five projected Toronto bats no higher than a 61 wRC+.
The Rays have a below-average defense (-4 RP, -9 OAA) that breaks even with their standard lineup against RHP (1 FRV), assuming Nick Fortes in for Hunter Feduccia, who caught Wednesday night.
The Tampa Bay bullpen has gone from an early-season albatross to a current strength with the second-best estimators over the last month (3.69 FIP, 3.39 xFIP, 3.15 xERA) and 11th-best BARTOLO ranking (3.88 wFIP).
Shane Bieber’s first three starts off the IL compared to his last two:
- F3: 13 IP – 64 BF – 20 H – 13 R – 6 HR – 7 BB – 9 K
- L2: 10.2 IP – 44 BF – 9 H – 2 R – 1 HR – 5 BB – 10 K
While his velocity spiked up nearly a full mph above any of his first three starts in his fourth (93 mph), it dropped down to 92.3 mph last time out, still higher than any of his first three, though (avg 92.0).
Eight of his nine barrels were surrendered in his first three starts, but his hard hit rate has reached at least 40% in every start.
Bieber did reach a season-high 13.8 SwStr% against the White Sox last time out.
The offenses he’s faced have been middle of the league through all five starts, though the Rays may mark his toughest spot with a projected lineup averaging a 128 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 112 wRC+ against RHP this year.
A Toronto defense that’s stunningly average (2 RP, 4 OAA) boosts to 18 FRV with our projected lineup. BARTOLO ranks this their 3rd best bullpen with last 30-day indicators (4.02 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, 3.70 SIERA) ranking 8th.
By using season-weighted estimators, Seymour is nearly two runs ahead of Bieber, and the Rays are the clear play up to around -140.
However, we’re dealing with smaller samples (one in a starting role and one overall). Trusting BARTOLO’s projections still gives Seymour a slight edge.
With my normal threshold, the Rays would still be actionable up to around -115, but I tend to look for larger edges when dealing with projections because of smaller samples and will leave it as a lean for now, but it’s close.
Check out all of Trollo's best bets in Thursday's edition of The Leadoff:
Pick: Lean Rays ML at -105 or Better
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Frank Ammirante's Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Best Bet
Brandon Pfaadt has been much more effective since rejoining the starting rotation. In four starts, Pfaadt has a 2.14 ERA (2.49 xERA) and a 0.95 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is at 14.5 K-BB%, highlighted by elite command (1.2 BB%) during this stretch.
Michael McGreevy has been in a nice rhythm of his own. In his last four starts, he has a 1.46 ERA (3.89 xERA) and a 0.93 WHIP. This includes a 19.1% strikeout rate and a 4.3% walk rate.
Then we have to consider the pitcher-friendly environment at Busch Stadium. We're getting favorable weather as well, with forecasts calling for 79-degree temperatures with 6 MPH winds blowing in from center.
I like that we're getting 4.5 runs on this first-five under, and we don't have to pay too much juice on it.
Read Ammirante's full Twins vs Guardians betting preview here:
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-110 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Royals vs Tigers Best Bet
We are taking the over in a matchup between two pitchers with ERAs below 2.00.
Randy Dobnak is making his fourth appearance of the season (all in July). He has allowed just three runs in 14 IP, yet his walks exceed his strikeouts in this span. That is usually a bad sign for pitchers, and it is reflected by Dobnak's peripheral ERA statistics all starting above 5.00.
Troy Melton's 1.80 ERA is much more "real" than Dobnak's 1.93 ERA. However, Melton's ERA is backed by a 3.03 xERA, 3.76 xFIP, and 3.85 SIERA. The Tigers' 2026 breakout SP is getting lucky this season and could regress at any moment.
This Royals' offense is not daunting, especially without superstar Bobby Witt Jr., but they can be a nuisance for Melton. If Jac Caglianone is back in the lineup, the Royals could have up to seven left-handed hitters in the lineup.
Melton has extreme splits, favoring his matchups against righties. He is well below average against lefties, but dominant against righties.
While both offenses today are just below average against RHP and in the past several weeks, there will be plenty of opportunities to produce.
The Royals are complementing their Randy Dobnak start with one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Detroit's bullpen is above-average, yet they may not have closer Kenley Jansen available. Jansen has pitched three times in the past four days, leaving his status in doubt.
Also, with Keider Montero no longer in the bullpen, the Tigers lose a significant piece to neutralize opponents.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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