Cardinals-Reds Over/Under Drawing Sharp Action Saturday

Cardinals-Reds Over/Under Drawing Sharp Action Saturday article feature image
Credit:

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kolten Wong and Joey Votto

  • Sharps are making moves on Saturday's Cardinals-Reds matchup (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals reveal how they're playing the over/under.

Saturday’s slate, as it generally does, offers bettors a variety of start times from which to choose, as first pitches range from 1 to 9 p.m. ET. But just because they can bet early doesn’t mean that sharps necessarily are. In fact, the game drawing the most professional action on Saturday starts at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Miles Mikolas hasn’t followed up his 2018 breakout campaign with a top-tier season, putting up a 4.15 ERA through 19 starts this year. His counterpart, though, has been having the best season of his career.

Luis Castillo is 9-3 through his first 19 outings, putting up a 2.41 ERA (third in the National League) and a league-leading 5.5 hits per nine innings. His first-half performance earned him his first career All-Star Game bid.

But even with Castillo’s dominance, this game opened at several books with a total of 9.0 runs — substantially higher than the two starters’ 6.56 combined ERA. Perhaps for that reason, this has been one of the more popular unders on today’s slate, drawing 65% of bettors.

Despite that, this total has risen from 9.0 to 9.5. As you could’ve probably guessed, sharps have been the cause for this reverse line move.

They’ve already triggered three Sports Insights Bet Signals — indicators of market-wide line movement caused by professional action — on the over. That’s caused books to raise this total up to 9.5 despite the under’s popularity.

It’s important to note that all three moves came at a total of 9.0, so it’s still to be seen whether pros think the over has value at its current listing. What’s clear, though, is that they’ve had plenty to do with how oddsmakers have decided to list this number.