MLB Sharp Betting Pick (Tuesday, August 4): Pirates vs. Twins


Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove

Pirates vs. Twins Odds

Pirates odds +163 [Bet Now]
Twins odds -190 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9 (o-114) [Bet Now]
Time Tuesday, 2:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of 10:50 a.m. ET and via Parx, which offers new customers a 20% profit boost + $500 risk-free wager on their first bet AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.

Just as was the case yesterday, the Twins are once again significant favorites over the Pirates, the line is once again falling and sharp bettors are once again contributing to that line fall. The only major difference at this point looks to be the start time (2:10 p.m. ET).

Of course, sharps would also probably like a different outcome than last night’s 5-4 Twins win based on how they’re approaching this one.

Pirates vs. Twins Sharp Betting Pick

2:10 p.m. ET | Joe Musgrove vs. Jose Berrios

Ask a sharp bettor which team they think will win tonight and you’ll get the same answer from each one: the Twins. That’s not, however, the same thing as asking which team is the smarter bet.

At north of +200 earlier this morning, the Pirates were implied just about a 33% chance of winning today. So for any bettor who thought their actual win probability was even slightly higher than that, it would be a worthwhile move to take a chance on that number.

And that’s exactly what sharps have done.

According to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track and record instances of sharp action in the market based on unusual line movement — the pros have come down on Pittsburgh’s moneyline on three separate occasions (twice at +195, once more at +188) to this point.

And even with 68% of bettors taking the Twins, the opposition from pro bettors has brought the favorites from as high as -245 down to -190 at Parx.

Sharp angle: Pirates (moved from +205 to +163) [Bet the Pirates at +195 with a 20% profit boost at Parx]

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