MLB Sharp Report: Pros Doubling Down on Blue Jays-Angels Moneyline, Over/Under
Los Angeles Angels first baseman Albert Pujols (5) celebrates with teammates in the dugout. Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sport
- Wiseguys are getting down on the moneyline and over/under for tonight's Blue Jays-Angels game (10:07 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze where the smart money is landing for both bets.
Wiseguys got back to their winning ways yesterday, going 2-1 with their Wednesday plays. With a light board tonight, sharps will look to stay extra disciplined and squeeze out another winning day.
After analyzing Thursday’s short 8-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action hitting both the side and total in one MLB game.
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- How to Win with Action Network Data
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- Common Mistakes Sports Bettors Should Avoid
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels
10:07 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Angels (moved from -134 to -152)
Los Angeles has taken the first two games of this series at home, winning 4-3 and 6-3. This puts the public in a conundrum for tonight’s game.
Average Joes love betting a hot team on a winning streak, but they also see two teams with nearly identical records (TOR: 14-16, LAA: 14-17) and say to themselves, “Toronto has to win today and avoid the sweep.”
This game opened with the Angels listed as moderate -134 favorites. Moneyline bets are split right down the middle, yet the line has skyrocketed toward the Halos (-134 to -152). In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a few cents if the bets are even. So we know this was caused by wiseguy action, not public betting.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed sharps steam LAA at -140. The Halos are also receiving 72% of dollars, further evidence of big wagers in their favor.
Pro bettors are also taking a bigger position on this over/under.
Sharp angle: Over (8.5 to 9)
The total opened at 8.5. With two good starters going head-to-head (Aaron Sanchez 2.32 ERA vs. Tyler Skaggs 3.15 ERA), the public says “give me the under.”
With 67% of bets taking the under, this created a rare “contrarian over” opportunity for the sharps. Pros crushed the Over 8.5 four separate times, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t seen a single conflicting under move (or buyback).
The over is receiving only 50% of bets but 68% of dollars, another clear indication that big money from respected bettors is banking on a high-scoring game.
Two added bonuses for sharps sweating the over:
- The wind is blowing out to straightaway center at 6 mph.
- Scott Barry is behind the plate. Since 2005, unders have lost 9.78 units with Barry calling balls and strikes, according to our Bet Labs data.