MLB Sharp Report: Pros Doubling Down on Twins-Athletics, Plus Phillies-Braves

Barbeque, beers, burgers, buns, beaches, bikinis and … baseball. America’s Pastime. The 4th of July wouldn’t be the same without it.

While I’d love to tell you that sharps are celebrating the holiday by loading up on Nationals, Yankees and Braves, that’s just not the case. Shocking, right?

Let’s detail how they’re targeting two games on the docket: Twins at Athletics (4:07 p.m. ET) and Phillies at Braves (7:20 p.m. ET).

Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics

4:07 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Twins (-124 to -132) and Under (10 to 9)

Wait a second … let’s get something straight here. The Twins opened at -150, are getting 78% of bets, and their current line is -132. Seems like the opposite of sharp action, right? Well, that’s true on the surface.

You were definitely on the “square” side of things if you took the Twins -150 when they opened yesterday. By about 11 p.m. ET, the line had moved all the way to -124, and that is when the sharp buyback hit, as multiple bet signals helped cause the line to swing back in their favor.

Though the Twinkies may not have had value at -150, sharps believed they did at -124. Professional bettors invest in certain numbers that they feel have value. To make an extreme example, a team might be square at -200, but sharp at +200. We’d never see line movement like that on a baseball game, but there’s a sizable gap between the 55.4% implied odds at -124 and 60% implied odds at -150.

If you see a line that’s moved a considerable amount, keep an eye out for buyback opportunities, as that can be a good way to get solid closing line value. Buy low, sell high.

But wait, that’s not all for this game. After opening at 10, which seems to be quite commonplace these days, this over/under is down a full run.

The over is not an overly popular pick, getting 55% of bets, but it’s the under that has commanded 60% of the money. After initially falling from 10 to 9.5 four hours after opening yesterday, a steam move on the under this morning knocked it down another peg.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

7:20 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Phillies (+155 to +140)

Though America is the “Land of the free and home of the brave,” sharp bettors are out here fading the Braves on the 4th of July. The nerve…

The public is certainly loading up on Braves tickets with their young stud Mike Soroka on the mound, and who could blame them? He has a 9-1 record and 2.13 ERA as he approaches 100 innings pitched.

However, while Joes may see that 2.13 ERA, Pros likely see the low BABIP (very low for a ground ball pitcher), low HR/FB rate and high LOB%. There’s no doubt Soroka has been impressive this year, but lucky, too. His FIP (3.16) and xFIP (3.75) are considerably higher than his ERA, which suggests regression is coming.

With that said, the 26% of folks betting the Phillies have accounted for 38% of the money wagered on the moneyline, which has helped move the Phillies’ line 15 cents. We’ve also tracked a reverse line move on the Phillies, further suggesting sharps are backing Bryce Harper & Co.