MLB Thursday Weather: Winds Will Be Howling in Missouri
Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kauffman Stadium.
- Strong winds will be a factor in nine of 10 MLB games today, especially for Dodgers-Cardinals (1:15 p.m. ET).
- On the other hand, Blue Jays-Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET) is pushing for the lowest Weather Rating of the year at just 3 out of 100.
- The Pirates-Cubs game (8:05 p.m. ET) could be at risk of postponement, as thunderstorms will be in the area all night.
Evidently, there is a low-grade hurricane enveloping the entire country because it is windy everywhere I look. Nine of the 10 games today will have average wind speeds around 10 mph, with a couple close to 20 mph.
Wacky, windy weather = betting opportunities, and these conditions are definitely causing an impact in the betting market.
A Trip To The Lab
The state of Missouri will be blustery today. The bluster will impact two day baseball games — Dodgers-Cardinals (1:15 p.m. ET) and Mariners-Royals (1:15 p.m. ET).
St. Louis will have winds of nearly 20 mph blowing out to left field and temps around 80 degrees, while Kansas City will have similarly strong winds blowing straight out with temps around 60. Apparently the two cities are not all that close, but The Action Network’s John Ewing would know more about that.
Anywho, if we look at Bet Labs, we’ll find that the over has hit at nearly a 55% rate in similar situations (winds of 15+ mph out or to left).
The total in St. Louis has gone from 8 to 8.5 since opening despite 60% of bets and dollars on the under, while the total in Kansas City has remained at 10. The juice is actually trending toward the under, so we may see a move to 9.5 before first pitch.
Highest Weather Ratings
- Dodgers at Cardinals: 74
- Marlins at Reds: 73
- Mets at Braves: 65
Weather Ratings are a proprietary number created by FantasyLabs, which are on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the best hitting atmosphere and 0 being the best pitching atmosphere. Weather Rating takes into account temperature, wind speed, wind direction, stadium elevation, humidity and atmospheric pressure.
Topping the ratings is Dodgers-Cardinals game, as the high winds and high heat combo are perfect for bopping dongs into Big Mac Land.
Right below that is the game in Cincinnati, which is warm, but has winds that will either be blowing in from right or from right to left. That total has remained at 8.5 since opening and has shown no real signs of moving whatsoever.
Surprisingly missing the cut with a rating of 55 is the Royals game, which is likely being bogged down by those low temperatures. Who knew the temperature could be ~20 degrees different in the same state?
Lowest Weather Ratings
- Blue Jays at Red Sox: 3
- Athletics at Orioles: 22
- Rockies at Giants: 24
Oh boy, what do we have here? A three? If that holds up, it would be tied for the second-worst weather of the year behind the two rating in the White Sox-Indians game on April 1. Historically, pitchers have averaged nearly one point more than their salary-based expectations on DraftKings in games with a Weather Rating between 0 and 5.
Despite the ugly weather in Boston, that total has actually risen from 9 to 9.5 since opening.
Baltimore is surprisingly bad for a day game, as temperatures will be around 60 degrees with strong winds blowing from right to left. That over/under is also 9.5.
- Pirates at Cubs
Pirates-Cubs is the only game with rain concerns, and they are certainly concerning. There will be storms moving into Chicago tonight, and although they’ll be scattered around the area at the start of the game, they should be moving in lock, stock and barrel by 9-10 p.m. local time.
If it stays dry early, they should be able to start the game and play several innings. But if there’s an early rain delay, it could put the game in jeopardy. Anyone here is a risky DFS play, as the game could be rain-shortened or postponed altogether.