Rangers vs. Padres Odds & Pick (Monday, Aug. 17): Fade Texas Pitching in First 5 Innings

Padres vs. Rangers Betting Odds

The San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers look like two teams going in the opposite direction. The Padres were swept by the Diamondbacks and dropped under .500 (11-12) for the first time this season while the Rangers took two out of three from the Rockies and after winning four out of their last five games, they've improved to 10-10.

In spite of their recent surge, the Rangers may be overachieving at this point in the season. They have a -15 run differential through 20 games and according to the Bill James Pythagorean Expectation, they resemble more of a team with a win percentage of .420 than a team that's playing .500 baseball.

The Padres on the other hand are wounded after being beset by injuries to their closer, Kirby Yates, who is now on the injured list. Outfielders Will Myers and Tommy Pham are also banged up.

Despite that, their back-to-back one-run loss games may suggest that this team is close to turning the corner. They'll have to like their chances given the pitching matchup that's penciled in for Monday night.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers will hand the ball to Jordan Lyles for his fourth start this season .

While Texas has picked up wins in his last two starts, Lyles has yet to make it through the sixth inning to register a quality start. In his last he gave up two home runs and four walks and was on the hook to take the loss before he was bailed out when the Rangers rallied with five runs in the eighth to grab the win.

Lyles is 1-1 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Walks have been a bugaboo for the right-hander as he’s currently giving up 6.61 BB/9, which is even worse than last year when he posted a 3.51 BB/9 ratio.

His propensity to cheaply allow guys on has led to a 6.44 FIP, which pretty much suggests that his current performance is right around where it should be.

San Diego Padres

Lyles will be opposed by Zach Davies. He’s 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA and .84 WHIP.

According to Baseball Savant, Davies throws four pitches: a changeup (40.7%), sinker (32.9%), cutter (24.2%) and a curveball (2.2%). His use of the changeup has increased dramatically over the last two years (up 28% from 2018) and it’d be difficult to argue with the decision. Batters are only hitting .194 off his changeup and he’s getting a whiff rate of 33.8% while using the pitch to put hitters away 32.6% of the time.

While Davies doesn’t throw particularly hard (his sinker and cutter are effectively his fastball which average 88.4 and 87.2 mph respectively), he’s able to maintain a separation of 8 mph between his fastball and his changeup, which really helps to keep hitters off balance. By throwing his changeup more, Davies is now averaging 7.15 K/9, which is the highest since 2016, his second year in the big leagues.

Betting Analysis

San Diego’s injury woes are no doubt a concern for me going into this game. With their closer out, they have less depth in a bullpen that’s already been struggled for much of the season. San Diego is third-to-last in bullpen ERA with a 6.52 mark and they’re also guilty of having the third most blown saves in the league (5).

With that said, they still maintain the edge in the starting pitching matchup.

The Rangers recent run looks a little like fool’s gold to me and I’m not sure how much longer they’ll continue to win games while getting outscored in aggregate over an extend stretch.

With Lyles on the mound today you can expect two things: a lot of runners on, and another short outing. The Padres are sixth in the league in drawing walks and that’s not the combination you want if you’re looking to back the Rangers.

The only way I could play this game is to target the first five innings in an effort to isolate the two pitchers head-to-head.

I think the Padres will chase Lyles out of this game early and I expect Davies to do his job to keep the Texas hitters at bay.

DraftKings is offering San Diego at -127 on the first five moneyline and that's a good enough price to get me to the window.

I'll take the Padres to have the lead after five innings and just maybe they also bring an end to their losing streak tonight.

Pick: Padres First 5 moneyline. Play up to -140.

[Bet the Padres now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]