Nationals vs. Rockies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Colorado to Pounce on Aaron Sanchez On Thursday (May 5)
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Sanchez (Nationals)
- The Nationals and Rockies go head-to-head in their series finale from Coors Field.
- Aaron Sanchez, who has struggled this season, takes the mound to face off against Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela.
- MLB betting analyst Doug Ziefel dives into the matchup by previewing the game and offering up two bets.
Nationals vs. Rockies Odds
|Time||3:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Colorado Rockies will look to close out this three-game set vs. the Washington Nationals on a high note, as they are in line to do some home cooking in this matchup.
Lined up against the Rockies will be Aaron Sanchez, as he’ll be tasked to tame the Colorado lineup. Sanchez has made two starts this season, and his percentile rankings thus far are as blue as the mountains on a can of Coors Light.
However, not much better can be said about Rockies starter, Antonio Senzatela. His peripheral stats may look solid — he’ll enter this start with a 3.66 ERA — but just like Sanchez, there are a lot of dark blue indicators around him.
However, a return to his home mound has been a key part of his early success, and he’ll look to keep the train rolling.
Nats No Threat to Senzatela
The Nationals have quickly become the bottom feeder of the NL East. While their staff ERA is third-worst in the majors, you can’t win if you can’t score.
Scoring is the apparent issue, but more specifically, the issue is creating runs.
Surprisingly, the Nats are fifth in the majors with a .241 team batting average, but a large majority of those hits have not shown up on the scoreboard. They are 19th in wRC+ and have -7.4 offensive runs above average.
When you look at their lineup, there are not many threats. Only Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Yadiel Hernandez possess above-average xwOBAs — then, Bell gets replaced by Maikel Franco when you analyze them by hard-hit rate.
While Senzatela’s expected stats may be concerning, this is not the lineup that will exploit him, especially at Coors Field. His ERA is only as high as it is because of his only road start against Detroit. Otherwise, in his other three starts, Senzatela has only allowed one earned run in each of them.
Rockies Set to Feast at Home
The Coors Field impact has been known since its inception, and the offensive boost is evident when you look at the Rockies’ number so far this season.
In 14 home games, they are hitting .281 with 78 runs scored. I’ll save you the math, as that’s an average of 5.5 runs per game. It’s a stark contrast to their average of 3.1 runs in nine road games this season.
Colorado’s home-field advantage may have been even more exacerbated when you add in Sanchez’s struggles. I made a Coors pun in the introduction to describe Sanchez’s underlying statistics, but the amount of hard contact he has allowed is no joke.
He’ll enter this start in the bottom two percent of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Subsequently, he also has an expected batting average in the bottom 10 percent of all qualified pitchers.
This matchup has all signs pointing in the direction of the Rockies. However, their ugly series-opening loss seems to have given us an excellent opening price on them.
Washington’s lineup does not pose much of a threat, and while Senzatela is certainly not the easier pitcher to trust, his numbers at home this season cannot be ignored.
On the other hand, it’s hard to expect anything better from a flamed-out Sanchez. The amount of solid contact he has allowed in two starts is alarming — to say the least — and now he has to face a potent offense in the best hitting environment in the league.
Give me the Rockies to win with a bang here, as they should pounce on Sanchez and add on as the game goes along against a poor Washington bullpen.
Pick: Rockies ML -130 | Bonus Pick: Rockies -1.5 (+155)