The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on May 2, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
The Pirates are favored by -138 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +118 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction
- Reds vs Pirates Pick: Under 8.5 (-125 or Better)
My Reds vs Pirates best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Pirates Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | +118 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | -138 |
- Reds vs Pirates moneyline: Reds +118, Pirates -138
- Reds vs Pirates over/under: 7.5 (-120o / -102u)
- Reds vs Pirates spread: Pirates -1.5 (+160), Reds +1.5 (-194)
Reds vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Rhett Lowder (RHP, CIN) | Stat | Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.18 / 4.00 | ERA / xERA | 4.13 / 4.06 |
| 2.93 / 4.31 | FIP / xFIP | 2.29 / 3.50 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 15.1% |
| 41.0% | GB% | 47.0% |
| .279 | BABIP | .357 |
| 85 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 110 | Location+ | 107 |
Reds vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Right-hander Rhett Lowder takes the mound for the Cincinnati Reds and should be a strong candidate to back.
The seventh overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, Lowder looked fantastic in his limited debut campaign the following year. Through six appearances, Lowder posted a 1.17 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. However, multiple injuries sidelined him from the majors in 2025, but he is back this season and has picked up right where he left off.
Lowder is 3-1 through his first six starts with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally impressive, as the right-hander ranks in the top half of qualified pitchers in xERA, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
However, Lowder’s run support may be limited.
This season, Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half among MLB lineups in runs scored per game, hits per game, on-base percentage, and OPS.
The Reds’ struggles at the plate are likely to continue against right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, who gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Entering this matchup, Mlodzinski ranks in the top half of qualified starters in xERA, strikeout rate, walk rate, and barrel rate.
A former reliever, Mlodzinski has not faced Cincinnati often, aside from brief appearances. That said, he owns a 3.29 ERA in his past 13 2/3 innings pitched against the Reds.
Reds vs Pirates Pick, Betting Analysis
While the Pirates do a good job of reaching base, their power numbers remain poor. Pittsburgh enters this contest ranked in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage and OPS.
It’s a limited sample size, but those issues are likely to continue against Lowder. In 13 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, the current Pittsburgh roster owns a .182 batting average, .182 slugging percentage, and .242 wOBA.
Finally, both teams feature strong bullpens, as their relief staffs rank in the top 10 in ERA.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-125 or Better)
