The Cleveland Guardians host the New York Mets on August 4, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Guardians are favored by -150 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +140 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Guardians Prediction
- Mets vs Guardians Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-155 or Better)
My Mets vs Guardians best bet is on Cleveland to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Guardians Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +140 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -150 |
- Mets vs Guardians moneyline: Mets +140, Guardians -150
- Mets vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (-122o / -100u)
- Mets vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+138), Mets +1.5 (-166)
Mets vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) | Stat | LHP Joey Cantillo (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 4.42/4.46 | ERA / xERA | 3.88/3.82 |
| 4.33/4.25 | FIP / xFIP | 3.88/3.98 |
| 14.5% | K-BB% | 14.2% |
| 39.0% | GB% | 44.1% |
| .308 | BABIP | .328 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 98 | Location+ | 97 |
Mets vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
I really like Joey Cantillo and the improvements he's made. The Guardians' pitching lab figured out a better pitch mix for Cantillo, and he’s modified it pretty aggressively as the season has gone on. He was throwing his curveball about 15% of the time in April, and now it's up to 50% in his last few starts.
The curveball has become his most-used pitch, ahead of even the fastball, and it’s been completely dominant: a 38% whiff rate and a .224 expected wOBA (xwOBA).
In the recent sample, it's gotten even better, and his changeup is dominant as well. I think Cantillo has fully figured out who he is going forward, and given this new pitch mix, he’s pitched like a No. 2 starter over the past two months or so.
Sean Manaea has pitched a little better in terms of recent results, but he's still getting hit hard. His sinker and cutter are getting crushed, giving up a .370 xwOBA and a .417 xwOBA, respectively—and he throws them a lot. I think his expected FIP is still over 5.00 in his last few starts.
Cantilo gets a lot more whiffs. While the Mets have the better offense, the Guardians have a much better defense and are the better baserunning team. Plus, as you alluded to, the Mets traded everybody away at the deadline and had to call up a bunch of guys today.
Mets vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
If you look at their Roster Resource page—which hasn't updated yet for all these call-ups—the Mets only have four guys left in their bullpen who were on the roster yesterday and weren't traded: Devin Williams, Daniel Duarte, Bryce Montes de Oca, and Kodai Senga. They had to call up six guys today, including five new relievers, none of whom are particularly good.
That creates a big bullpen advantage for the Guardians here, alongside a pretty substantial starting pitching advantage for me as well. There's a slight lineup edge for the Mets, but I prefer the Guardians defensively.
I make Cleveland about -170 in this game and like them down to -155. You could also lay the First 5 (F5) line, but I prefer getting the bullpens involved from a late-game perspective given the Mets' situation.
Take the Guardians up to -155—it's one of my two favorite moneyline bets today.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-155 or Better)
