The Colorado Rockies host the New York Mets on May 4, 2026. First pitch from Coors Field is scheduled for 5:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on COLR.
The Mets are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rockies are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Rockies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Rockies Prediction
- Mets vs Rockies Pick: Over 10.5 (-124)
My Mets vs Rockies best bet is on the over total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Rockies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 10.5 -124o / 102u | -144 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 10.5 -124o / 102u | +122 |
- Mets vs Rockies moneyline: Mets -144, Rockies +122
- Mets vs Rockies over/under: 10.5 (-124o / +102u)
- Mets vs Rockies spread: Mets -1.5 (+112), Rockies +1.5 (-134)
Mets vs Rockies Probable Pitchers
| RHP Huascar Brazoban (NYM) | Stat | RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 1.15/2.59 | ERA / xERA | 2.84/5.34 |
| 2.89/3.06 | FIP / xFIP | 4.73/4.46 |
| 16.9% | K-BB% | 9.2% |
| 58.1% | GB% | 46.5% |
| .238 | BABIP | .240 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 79 |
| 107 | Location+ | 106 |
Mets vs Rockies MLB Betting Preview
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
Tomoyuki Sugano is going for the Rockies today, and David Peterson is slated to be the bulk guy for the Mets. The Mets are going to use Huascar Brazoban as an opener in front of him.
David Peterson has been straight up awful since the second half of last year, and the question is why, because his expected FIP last year in the first half versus the second half is a total "Strikeout Montezuma".
The numbers were virtually the same, with a 3.67 xFIP in the first half and 3.82 in the second half, while his strikeout rate only moved from 12% to 11%. His ERA, however, jumped from 3.06 to 6.30. Again, the underlying indicators didn't really change.
Now this year, he has an xFIP of 3.75, a SIERA of 3.93, an ERA of 6.53, and an expected ERA of 4.68. There is something being missed in the ground ball profile he has and the expected home run rate he carries, because he hasn't given up more than six-tenths of a homer over the past two years.
There is something broken with David Peterson. I don't know if it's mechanical or what it is, but there's just something off.
This is a guy who, when their new pitching coach got brought in a couple of years ago, changed his delivery to that more sidewinding type of profile and was really successful.
For whatever reason now, even though the ground ball tilt is still there and his underlying indicators haven't fallen off dramatically, the actual results have. Again, watching him, it seems like something is just broken.
Clearly, by using an opener in front of him, they're trying to figure out ways to put him in better situations to make him more comfortable.
I think David Peterson is going through something, and while I can't tell you exactly what it is, I agree more with the xERA of 4.68 than I do with those xFIP or SIERA numbers below 4. That's my main takeaway on Peterson right now.
Sugano is a guy we were looking to fade in any venue coming into the year. He has actually pitched a little bit better for the Rockies, seemingly, than he pitched for the Orioles, but his barrel rate is still near 13%.
This is a guy who should give up hard contact, carries a below-average strikeout rate, and has an xERA of 5.50 against a surface ERA around 5.00.
I would expect Sugano to start getting hit harder going forward; the question is whether the Mets' offense is capable of piecing anything together against him.
I would make this game around 11.25 runs and bet the over up to 11 at even money. You could have gotten 10 or 10.5 last night, and it’s still plenty within range today considering we are below the key number of 11.
I am down on both of these starting pitchers; I have Sugano rated 131st out of about 160 and Peterson rated 91st, and I think you can downgrade him even below that.
On top of it, you have the bullpens. The Rockies are coming off a series against the Braves where they couldn't stop giving up runs, and Antonio Senzatela, Tanner Gordon, and Jimmy Herget should all be fatigued or unavailable today.
They only have four rested arms, and it’s the same for the Mets. Tobias Myers, Brooks Raley, Luke Weaver, and Sean Manaea are all coming in with some concern—maybe not Manaea, but the other three, including their main long reliever.
I think we get a lot of runs here later as opposed to earlier in the game, but over 10.5 up to 11 at even money is one of my favorite totals on today’s slate.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-124)
