The San Diego Padres host the New York Mets on July 28, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets will look to extend their winning streak to eight games when they open up a three-game series versus the Padres on Monday evening.
Frankie Montas (4.62 ERA, 25 and 1/3 IP) will make his sixth start of the season versus Dylan Cease (4.59 ERA, 113 and 2/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mets vs Padres Prediction
- Mets vs Padres picks: Padres Moneyline (-131, Play to -135)
My Mets vs Padres best bet is on the Padres moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Padres Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8 -111o / -109u | +109 |
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -111o / -109u | -132 |
Mets vs Padres Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-194); Padres -1.5 (+158)
Mets vs Padres Totals: 8 (O -111 / U -109)
Mets vs Padres Moneyline: Mets +109; Padres -132
Mets vs Padres Best Bet: Padres ML
Mets vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Frankie Montas (NYM) | Stat | RHP Dylan Cease (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 3-10 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 4.62 / 4.86 | ERA / xERA | 4.59 / 3.48 |
| 4.55 / 3.81 | FIP / xFIP | 3.57 / 3.37 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 15.9 | K-BB% | 20.9 |
| 42.3 | GB% | 35.6 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 102 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Mets vs Padres Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Montas, Bullpen Struggling of Late
Frankie Montas was able to earn his third win of the season in his previous start last Tuesday, despite allowing eight hits and a home run in five and 2/3 innings of work versus the Los Angeles Angels.
Montas has now pitched to an xERA of 4.82 and 4.55 FIP, after finishing the 2024 season with an ERA of 4.84 and a 4.71 FIP. Montas also holds an xBA of .289 this season and a WHIP of 1.30.
The consensus from the major projection systems was that Montas would hold an ERA close to 4.50 this season, and aside from his strong pitch metrics, it seems likely those projections will be accurate.
The Mets bullpen was expected to be a strength this season, and that has been the case. Mets relievers hold an ERA of 3.74 in 407 innings of work, which is the sixth-most innings any relief staff has handled. However, their bullpen has been less effective over the last 30 days, as they have pitched to a 22nd-ranked ERA of 4.53.
New York's lineup has a 15th-ranked wRC+ of 101 over the last 30 days but holds the third-highest hard-hit rate in MLB in that span.
Starling Marte leads the team with a .398 weighted on-base average in that stretch of play, while Juan Soto has also started to find his stride with a .902 OPS.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Back Cease At Home
Dylan Cease enters this matchup with an ERA of 4.59, which is the worst mark of his career aside from his rookie season in 2019.
The underlying metrics suggest he has pitched at a comparable level to last season, when he finished with an ERA of 3.47, and he seems likely to continue trending in the right direction moving forward.
Cease has pitched to an xERA of 3.48 and an xFIP of 3.37 this season but has stranded just 69.2% of base-runners and allowed 1.27 HR/9. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 108 and a Pitching+ rating of 109, which also supports the idea that he is still a far better than average starter.
In his last 50 innings of work, Cease has pitched to an ERA of 4.50 but holds an xFIP of 3.50 and an xBA of .208. He's struck out 30% of batters in that span but has continued to struggle to limit the long ball (1.44 HR/9).
Cease has been considerably more effective when pitching at Petco Park this season, as he holds an ERA of 3.48 in 51 and 2/3 innings of work. In 2024, he finished with a 3.03 ERA in 86 innings inside the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco.
The Padres were expected to once again offer one of the best bullpens in baseball entering the season. That projected strength has come to fruition as Padres relievers have pitched to the lowest ERA in MLB. Over the last 30 days, San Diego's relievers have held an ERA of 1.96, which is the best mark in baseball.
The Padres currently have no position players on the IL and should be able to offer their top lineup to open up this series. They rank 14th in wRC+ over the last 30 days and have struck out at the second-lowest rate in MLB during that span.
Mets vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
While it may not seem overly appealing to fade the Mets as an underdog when they are in the midst of a seven-game winning streak, the gap between Cease and Montas appears to be underrated.
At -135 or better, there looks to be value in backing the Padres to build on their strong record of 31-18 at home in this matchup.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (-131, Play to -135)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Padres at -131 looks to provide value.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Padres to cover the run-line at +165 also appears to hold value and would likely yield a similar EV to betting the Padres to win.
Over/Under
A total of 8 looks to be fair given the starting pitching matchup.
