The Kansas City Royals (34-33) host the New York Yankees (40-25) on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video and MLB Network.
The Yankees bounced back from a tough series loss at home versus the Boston Red Sox with a commanding 10-2 win over the Royals in Tuesday's series opener. New York earned six runs off of Noah Cameron, who entered the game with a 0.85 ERA.
The Bronx Bombers will hope for a similar result Wednesday when they take on Kris Bubic, who leads all AL starters with an ERA of 1.43. The Royals' offense will attempt to find better form in a matchup versus Clarke Schmidt, who allowed three earned runs across 5 2/3 innings of work versus Kansas City on April 16 at Yankee Stadium.
Find my Yankees vs Royals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, and more for Wednesday night.
Yankees vs Royals Prediction
- Yankees vs Royals pick: Yankees Moneyline -126 (FanDuel, Play to -136)
My Yankees vs Royals best bet is the Yankees moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8.5 -122o / 100u | -127 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -157 | 8.5 -122o / 100u | +106 |
Yankees vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY) | Stat | LHP Kris Bubic (KC) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 4.04 / 3.07 | ERA /xERA | 1.43 / 2.81 |
| 3.91 / 3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 2.45 / 3.27 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 14.2 | K-BB% | 19.4 |
| 36.4 | GB% | 44 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 102 | Location+ | 105 |
Yankees vs Royals Preview, Prediction
Yankees Betting Preview: Good History Against Bubic
In this matchup, the Yankees will face Bubic for the second time this season. New York saw Bubic well on April 16, as it became one of only two teams to record three earned runs off of him this season.
Bubic allowed seven hits and three earned runs across 5 1/3 innings of work and allowed a xBA of .312 in the meeting.
It's no surprise that Bubic's second-worst outing of the season came versus the Yankees, as they've been the most productive team in the league versus left-handed pitchers by a significant margin.
New York enters this matchup with a wRC+ of 136 versus left-handed pitchers and an OPS of .840. It holds the fourth-best BB/K ratio versus lefties and ranks third in hard-hit rate.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is listed as day-to-day after leaving Tuesday's matchup with neck tightness, but the game was out of reach at that point, and he likely avoided anything serious.
Schmidt has started to gain some traction after a slow start to the season and appears likely to pitch above-average results the rest of the way. Schmidt holds a 3.41 ERA in 34 1/3 innings of work across his last six starts, with an xFIP of 3.61 and a 25.2% strikeout rate.
He's reduced his hard-hit rate to 32.1% in those outings and has featured an above-average Stuff+ rating of 102 and a Pitching+ rating of 101.
Royals Betting Preview: Can Bubic Keep It Up?
The Royals enter this matchup in the midst of a 6-10 stretch that's seen them drop to fourth place in an AL Central that currently features four teams above .500.
Their offensive play has been a concern, as they hold a wRC+ of 93 over the last 30 days and have made soft contact at the fifth-highest rate during that span.
The Royals rank 22nd in expected slugging percentage this season and 23rd in xWOBA. Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia have led the top of the order to solid results, but the Royals' lack of production further down the lineup has consistently been an issue.
Bubic is currently priced at +2200 to win the AL Cy Young despite being the league leader in ERA. In other words, oddsmakers aren't convinced that he'll be able to offer such dominant results for the remainder of the season.
Bubic holds a 2.81 xERA and 3.27 xFIP, which suggests he's been truly excellent this season.
Bubic finished with a 1.81 xERA and 2.04 xFIP in a small sample of 30 1/3 innings in 2024 and is quietly emerging as a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation.
He holds a Stuff+ rating of 93 and his fastball tops out at 93, but he's been able to command his strong five-pitch mix consistently this season.
Yankees vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Including his tremendous work in a small sample last season, Bubic has been one of the best starters in baseball over the last two years and is capable of dragging the Royals to a win in any matchup.
Still, Kansas City's chances in this game are overvalued, with it being priced as only a slight underdog.
The Yankees have been the best team in the league versus lefties by a fairly significant margin and were able to produce effectively versus Bubic in their previous matchup this season.
Schmidt has been in strong form lately and should have a good chance of authoring another solid outing versus a Royals lineup that's struggled to produce recently.
At -126, there's value backing the Yankees' elite offense to win out in a tough matchup versus Bubic on Wednesday.
Pick: Yankees ML -126 (FanDuel, Play to -136)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Yankees to win is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Yankees to cover the run-line at +126 also provides value and likely holds a similar EV to betting them to win the game at -126.
Over/Under
A total of nine looks fair for this matchup given the starting pitching matchup.
