The Texas Rangers host the New York Yankees on August 5, 2025. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on YES.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Rangers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Rangers Prediction
Yankees vs Rangers pick: Yankees ML +110 (Play to +103)
My Yankees vs Rangers best bet is Yankees moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Rangers Odds, Spread
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -120o / 100u | +105 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -120o / 100u | -125 |
Yankees vs Rangers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Will Warren (NYY) | Stat | RHP Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 9-3 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 4.64/4.09 | ERA /xERA | 1.49/3.26 |
| 3.64/3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 2.43/2.90 |
| 1.43 | WHIP | 0.89 |
| 15.8% | K-BB% | 21.5% |
| 44.4% | GB% | 50.8% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 100 | Location+ | 104 |
My Yankees vs Rangers Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Hoping Judge’s Return Sparks a Turnaround
The Yankees have struggled to a record of 4-6 during the 10-game span in which Judge has been out of the lineup and will hope his return can help spark a much-needed upswing.
New York has dropped to third place in the AL East and is now closer to being out of the playoffs altogether than it is to the Toronto Blue Jays atop the AL East.
Over the last 30 days, the Yankees' pitching staff has allowed an ERA of 4.96, which ranks 27th in MLB. Also, the amount of fundamental miscues made both in the field and on the basepaths recently by Aaron Boone's side has also been a prominent concern.
It's hard to dispute that with Judge healthy, the Yankees own one of the most potent offenses in the league. They rank first in slug rate, weighted on-base average and wRC+ this season.
Over the last 30 days, they rank 11th in wRC+. However, they hold the league's 28th-lowest BABIP during that span despite holding the second-highest hard-hit rate in baseball.
Though Devin Williams did blow a save in last night's matchup, the Yankees' bullpen should be a massive strength after some excellent additions at the trade deadline.
New York's high-powered bullpen enters this game in good shape, as only JT Brubaker and Brent Headrick have seen heavy usage over the last three days, which is important given that Warren typically doesn't pitch overly deep into ballgames.
Warren features the arsenal of a true starter and can be quite difficult to handle at his best, but he's struggled with consistency and features an inflated ERA due to a number of bad outings.
He features a Stuff+ rating of 101 and a Pitching+ rating of 104, and those strong marks will come as no surprise to those who have seen his better starts.
In his last 10 starts, Warren has pitched to an ERA of 3.88 and holds an xFIP of 3.74 in those outings. On a game-by-game basis, he's pitched quite well in eight of those starts, but he was torched for 10 hits and earned runs in four innings of work versus the Toronto Blue Jays on July 2.
Obviously most pitchers’ splits will start to look pretty strong if you remove their worst outings, but Warren's Jekyll-and-Hyde results have been particularly pronounced this season.
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Eovaldi Dominant, But Regression Looms
While the Rangers are in the midst of one of their better stretches of offensive play throughout the last two seasons, the Rangers still hold a wRC+ of 100 and rank 23rd in BB/K ratio, as well as 23rd in hard-hit rate.
Dating back to the start of last season, Texas ranks 22nd in wRC+ and 28th in OPS, and it ranks 22nd in expected weighted on base average in 2025.
Texas also ranks 24th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season and has slugged just .383.
The Rangers' starting rotation has been dominant, as their starters hold the second-best adjusted ERA in baseball and the fifth-best xFIP.
Eovaldi's stellar 1.49 ERA through 103 innings of work has been a huge part of the staff's success, but the veteran righty does appear to be due for some significant regression moving forward.
Aside from in 2012 when he pitched just 34 2/3 innings, Eovaldi has stranded base-runners at the highest rate of any season of his career thus far and holds a home-run-to-fly-ball ratio of 6.6%.
His strong xERA of 3.26 and xFIP of 2.90 suggest that he's pitched at a very high level, but I agree that this level of dominance is unlikely to continue.
Eovaldi's Stuff+ rating has dropped to 97 compared to last year's mark of 100, while he holds a Pitching+ rating of 102 compared to a mark of 101 in 2024.
Yankees vs Rangers Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup appears to be a good time to try and target Warren offering one of his better outings, with the Yankees priced as slight underdogs versus a good fade candidate in Eovaldi.
The Rangers' lineup has been highly ineffective throughout the majority of the last two seasons and, even during their slight recent upswing, they haven't managed much hard contact or displayed strong plate discipline.
In a start coming at a very pitcher-friendly ballpark versus a soft lineup, Warren should have a good opportunity to get into a strong rhythm and have a sharp outing.
Eovaldi will face a much stiffer test than Warren, as he looks to shut down the Yankees' high-powered lineup, while New York's stacked bullpen will offer an edge once the starter's leave the game.
At +103, there looks to be value in backing the Yankees to snap their losing skid in Tuesday's matchup.
Pick: Yankees ML +110 (Play to +103)
Yankees vs Rangers Parlay
- Will Warren to Record a Win
- Will Warren 5+ Strikeouts
- Nathan Eovaldi Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Parlay Odds: +550 (bet365)
This looks like a good spot to sprinkle a small bet on a parlay targeting Warren's high upside and the idea that Eovaldi could come down to earth versus arguably the best offense in the AL.
Warren has lasted five or more innings in two straight outings and allowed only three earned runs in that span.
He has the stuff to be a better-than-average starter moving forward, and a matchup at Globe Life Field versus a weaker lineup should give him a good chance to hang around long enough to record a win while recording five strikeouts.
Eovaldi has rightfully earned a long leash this season, which could prove favorable towards betting over 2.5 earned runs as he looks to keep one of the league's best offenses in check.
If Eovaldi is to allow over 2.5 runs, Warren will have a great chance of earning a win with a solid outing, and at +550, this long-shot parlay looks to be worth a wager.
