The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees on July 23, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Yankees vs Blue Jays pick: Yankees ML
My Yankees vs Blue Jays best bet is on the New York moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Odds, Spread, Best Bet
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 8 -118o / -103u | -139 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -149 | 8 -118o / -103u | +114 |
Yankees vs Blue Jays Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+122); Blue Jays +1.5 (-149)
Yankees vs Blue Jays Total: 8 (O -118 / U -103)
Yankees vs Blue Jays Moneyline: Yankees -139; Blue Jays +114
Yankees vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Yankees ML
Yankees vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Chis Bassitt (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3 | W-L | 10-4 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 2.43 / 3.43 | ERA /xERA | 3.89 / 3.90 |
| 3.03 / 3.38 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67 / 3.67 |
| 1.01 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 17.6% | K-BB% | 16.3% |
| 51.3% | GB% | 45.8% |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
Kenny Ducey’s Yankees vs Blue Jays Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
It's been a tough month for Max Fried, who finished off the month of June with a 1.92 ERA. He's since posted a 6.43 ERA in three July starts, struggling to limit the walks while failing to replicate the encouraging strikeout numbers we'd been seeing for the majority of the first half.
The lefty hasn't exactly pitched awfully, if his expected numbers are to be believed, with a .391 xSLG more or less matching his season-long numbers and his .263 xBA coming up just above the league average.
Fried has experienced a drop in ground balls this month to lead the charge in those two areas, but in a puzzling twist the Yankees' defense has actually been stellar this month — which should be keeping his numbers in a reasonable area. He's also only allowed two homers in three starts — all coming on the same night in Toronto — and it's the only time he's surrendered a longball in his last five outings.
Overall, this is a trustworthy profile with Fried's ground-ball rate sitting close to the top 10% of all pitchers and his defense taking some great strides after a re-shuffling a few weeks ago. Toronto did give him trouble to begin the month, but it also fell to Fried back in April when he tossed six scoreless with three strikeouts and two walks.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Somehow, Chris Bassitt has continued to find a way to pitch effectively into his late thirties. The veteran righty owns a 3.89 ERA through 113 1/3 innings, remaining level with average strikeout and ground-ball rates and an ever-improving walk rate which has dipped below 6%.
The reason it's somewhat of a marvel is that Toronto's defense has been one of the worst in baseball this month, though it's shone overall this season. Despite the poor play behind him, and a season-worst .291 xBA in July, Bassitt turned in a 1.89 ERA through 19 innings this month to represent his best of the year.
That doesn't mean it hasn't come without resistance, however, as the righty surrendered 10 hits through 6 1/3 scoreless innings last outing against the Giants. He's now allowed 22 hits in 19 innings, and his low walk rate and knack for keeping the ball in the yard have worked wonders to weigh his xERA down under four runs.
We know the Yankees love to hit ground-ball pitchers, and have hit the ball with authority on account of their .209 Isolated Power in the last two weeks, so this one could be a tricky spot for Bassitt.
Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Blue Jays are hitting incredibly well at the moment, but their approach has been largely based on contact hitting. This isn't new — the team put a ton of balls in play last year only to fall short in the power department — and that's been the case in the last two weeks with a meek .148 ISO next to a low 17.9% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.
That should work wonders for Fried, who's pitched well to contact this year and should be nursed back to life by a Yankees infield which has looked sharp around a couple of bad errors in recent games. While he's stood vulnerable against walks and power, too, these aren't features of Toronto's current order.
With that, I have no choice but to ride with the Yankees here. Bassitt's sporting a wildly unsustainable profile right now, giving up hits left and right, and with New York's power-heavy lineup hitting the ball well, there's a high likelihood for some back-breaking extra-base hits to finally send Bassitt crashing back to Earth.
Pick: Yankees ML (-140) | Play to -150
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like the Yankees moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't see value on the run line tonight.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from the Over/Under.
