Orioles vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Pick, Preview: Baltimore Has Value as Road Dog (Sept. 4)

Orioles vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Pick, Preview: Baltimore Has Value as Road Dog (Sept. 4) article feature image

G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Chris Ellis.

  • The Baltimore Orioles square off against the New York Yankees in Saturday's MLB action.
  • Chris Ellis gets the ball for Baltimore, which is looking to pull off the upset.
  • D.J. James breaks down the matinee below and details why he finds plenty of value on the Orioles.

Orioles vs. Yankees Odds

Orioles Odds+250
Yankees Odds-320
TimeSaturday | 1:05 p.m. ET
TVMLB Network
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Baltimore Orioles look to steal a series against the red-hot New York Yankees. Chris Ellis will compete with the sinker-baller Jordan Montgomery in Saturday's matinee in the Bronx. Ellis has looked decent in his three appearances for the Orioles thus far, but Jordan Montgomery hasn't had a tough outing since June.

The last time Montgomery faced the Orioles they tagged him for five runs in three innings, so which Montgomery will we see in this contest? And will Ellis’ recent success be short-lived?

Ellis Has Performed Well for Struggling Baltimore

Chris Ellis hasn't pitched too much this season. He only has 11 2/3 innings under his belt, but held some very strong offenses in check, including the Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. He doesn't go deep into games, but the Orioles will take what they can get from their starters.

Ellis does feature a mid-range four-seam fastball, which the Yankees love to hit. They hold a .379 xwOBA against that pitch since the trade deadline, but his secondary out pitch is the slider. That's a pitch New York has tended to struggle against this season. They only have a .300 xwOBA off sliders in that same time frame, so for Ellis to overcome a potent lineup full of sluggers, he must feature that pitch as much as possible.

The Baltimore lineup, as stated above, has shown their ability to come alive at times, like when it last saw Montgomery back in May. The Orioles have flown under the radar, but many of their hitters love facing left-handed pitchers. Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hayes, Ramón Urias, Jorge Mateo and Anthony Santander have above 100 wRC+ since August began off lefties.

This doesn't include their most exciting player in Cedric Mullins, either, who has slumped just a little bit. On the season, they have five hitters over that same mark, including Mullins.

In addition, they can smack around sinker-ballers. The Orioles have a combined .356 xwOBA since the trade deadline on this pitch and a .343 xwOBA on the season. They should be able to score a few runs early and rattle Montgomery, since they like seeing this pitch so often. Baltimore struggles somewhat with off-speed pitches, but Montgomery goes to his sinker 23.5% of the time. So, every four pitches they should be licking their chops.

The Baltimore bullpen is atrocious. It's the worst part of the team at this point. The Orioles rank second to last in Major League Baseball in WPA. Their combined 7.39 ERA versus their 5.21 xFIP shows they've been pretty unlucky since the deadline. Marcos Dipan and Tyler Wells are the best options in relief, but they'll need Ellis to put together a strong outing ahead of them.

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Yankees Pitcher Montgomery Has Delivered Since Break

Montgomery has had a phenomenal second half of the season. He owns a 1.93 ERA since the All-Star break, but his 4.08 ERA on the season shows he's getting a little lucky compared to his total 3.52 ERA on the year. He features his curveball, changeup and sinker the most often out of his pitch arsenal. The Orioles do love that sinker, so he should avoid it as his "out" pitch.

New York's hitting has been on fire since the beginning of August. The club has a 115 wRC+ during that time when facing right-handers. Aaron Judge has been on a tear with his 197 wRC+. Yet, outside of him, the Yankees have four others above that 100 wRC+ mark. This is pretty much comparable to the Orioles. Anthony Rizzo is still struggling wearing the pinstripes. Joey Gallo has adjusted nicely, but they're somewhat top-heavy, like their division foes.

On the other hand, the Yankees' bullpen is at its peak. Yes, Zack Britton is on the 60-day Injured List, but Jonathan Loáisiga has nicely filled into the back-end role. He does have a 0.55 ERA, but his xFIP is 3.32. The same can be said about Wandy Peralta, Lucas Luetge, Albert Abreu and Clay Holmes. All are overachieving at the moment and, at some point, luck will catch up to them.

Orioles-Yankees Pick

Typically, the Yankees should have an easy time in a game against the perpetually rebuilding Orioles, but not in this matchup.

In a few outings, Ellis has shown his ability to hold good offenses to few runs. He needs to use his slider a bit more often, and he will be fine. The Orioles can hit the sinker, so expect them to put up some runs against Montgomery.

As long as the Baltimore bullpen does not ruin this game, they should be in line to keep this one close and pull off the upset as live underdogs.

That said, take Baltimore on the moneyline at +250 and play to +210 odds.

Pick: Orioles ML (+250 | play to +210)

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