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Padres vs Dodgers Odds, Picks for MLB Playoffs NLDS Game 1

Padres vs Dodgers Odds, Picks for MLB Playoffs NLDS Game 1 article feature image
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Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias

  • The Dodgers are huge favorites in tonight's NLDS Game 1 against the Padres.
  • Los Angeles has its ace, Julio Urias, on the mound, while San Diego will counter with Mike Clevinger.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Padres vs. Dodgers Game 1 Odds

Padres Odds +180
Dodgers Odds -225
Over/Under 7
Time 9:37 p.m. ET
TV FS1
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After their triumphant Wild Card Round victory over the New York Mets, the San Diego Padres head to Los Angeles to open the Divisional Series against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have owned the Padres this season, boasting a 14-5 head-to-head record and a +62 run differential over their division rivals. While the Padres were able to take out the higher-seeded Mets on the road, the outcome of a matchup between two seemingly cursed franchises had to result in a winner.

Mike Clevinger will be the Game 1 starter for the Padres, which is certainly not what the Padres consider an ideal situation. On the other side, a well-rested and likely Cy Young vote-getter takes the mound for the Dodgers in Julio Urias.

Outlook Not Promising For Clevinger, Padres

Clevinger does have some scattered postseason appearances, but the body of his postseason work is relatively unimpressive. In his career, he’s posted a 4.15 postseason ERA, but his 7.39 FIP and 6.34 xFIP in the postseason show that his modest success has still been flanked by fortune.

Additionally, Clevinger really struggled against the Dodgers this season. He was lit up for a 9.69 ERA, an 8.04 FIP and a 6.00 xFIP across three starts against his NLDS opponent.

The Padres’ offense was able to do considerable damage against Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt in the Wild Card Round. However, the Padres just couldn’t seem to mount any offense against the Dodgers this season. Especially in Los Angeles.

Their 55 team wRC+ against the Dodgers was the fifth-lowest wRC+ posted by any team visiting the Dodgers this season. Granted, the Padres had the largest sample of the 18 teams, but they performed worse in Los Angeles than any of their division mates.

Dodger Have Ace In Urias

Urias will get the start for the Dodgers in game one and he is battle-tested. Although he may have the signature pitching performance from the 2020 World Series where he earned the two-plus inning, series clinching save, Urias would like to forget about his 2021 NLCS performance against the Atlanta Braves.

While Urias’ postseason career has had it’s ups and downs, Urias has developed into the Dodgers’ ace. And like an ace, he has pitched well against his division rival. In four starts this season, Urias posted a 1.50 ERA against the Padres. He did also post a 4.40 FIP and 4.90 xFIP as well, but he still managed to navigate jams and keep the Padres off the board.

The big advantage here is the Dodgers’ offense and bullpen. The Dodgers’ offense has tormented Clevinger this season, but they have also tormented the Padres’ bullpen as well.

The Dodgers posted a .310 wOBA and slugged at a .410 clip against the Padres’ pen this season. The Padres’ pen ended up posting a 5.38 ERA, a 4.36 FIP and a 4.69 xFIP against the Dodgers’ offense this season.

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Padres-Dodgers Pick

Although the Padres had a huge emotional victory over the Mets over the weekend, their demons have not been fully exorcised. The Dodgers not only have huge edges in every facet of this Game 1 matchup, but they have a huge edge in every matchup of this series.

The Dodgers are heavy favorites heading into game one with their moneyline in the -200 range. Therefore, the run line is the best play here in terms of value and likelihood. It should be played at -115 or better.

Pick: LA RL +105

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