Friday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Padres vs. Mets: Expect New York to Have Early Success Against Darvish

Friday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Padres vs. Mets: Expect New York to Have Early Success Against Darvish article feature image

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar.

  • The Padres open up the second half with a three-game series against the Mets.
  • Yu Darvish will take the ball for the Padres in a matchup between two teams with playoff aspirations.
  • Tony Sartori digs into this matchup and provides his best bet below.

Padres vs. Mets Odds

Padres Odds+155
Mets Odds-190
Over/Under6.5 (-110 / -110)
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds updated as of Friday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of this three-game series between the NL East's New York Mets and the NL West's San Diego Padres. This game is the fourth meeting between these two teams this season with the Padres having won two of the first three.

Will the Padres win once again as a road underdog, or can the Mets take care of business as a home favorite?

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San Diego Padres: Regression is Hitting Darvish

The Padres have been in poor form recently as they have lost 11 of their past 17 games. I am fading San Diego once again with right-hander Yu Darvish is slated to take the mound.

Through 17 starts this season, Darvish is 8-4 with a 3.41 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. While those numbers are solid, Darvish's metrics suggest regression is looming.

This year, Darvish possesses a .307 xwOBA, .237 xBA and a .409 xSLG. The regression has already started to hit Darvish, who has had a few poor outings of late.

Over his past four starts, Darvish is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In the first five innings of those games, the opposing team scored two or more runs three times (75%).

New York Mets: Will Offense Stay Hot?

While San Diego has been in poor form, the Mets have seen some recent success as they have won 10 of their past 15 games. I expect this success to continue against Padres right-hander Yu Darvish.

Through 92 career plate appearances against Darvish, this current Mets roster boasts a .245 xBA, .492 xSLG and a .336 xwOBA. Through seven outings against Darvish, the Mets have scored two or more runs in the first five innings four times (57%).

New York's offense has been in good form recently as they have scored an average of 4.27 runs and 3.13 extra-base hits over their past 15 games. During that stretch, the Mets have registered two or more runs in the first five innings nine times (60%).

Padres-Mets Pick

We are rolling with the Mets F5 team total over 1.5. I believe we are getting tremendous value in this number because of Darvish's reputation and surface-level stats.

However, Darvish is due for further regression and has really struggled recently. This downward trend should continue against a Mets team that has hit well over its past 15 games and has had "expected" success against Darvish.

With the Mets having gone over this total in nine of their past 15 games, I think 1.5 is a number too low to pass up. The weather could also give us a very slight boost as the forecast calls for 8-10 mph winds blowing directly out to centerfield during the game.

Pick: Mets F5 TT o1.5 (-130) | Play up to (-140)

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