Padres vs Reds Odds, Expert Pick | MLB Prediction Today

Padres vs Reds Odds, Expert Pick | MLB Prediction Today article feature image

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Padres vs. Reds Odds

Saturday, July 1
1:40 p.m. ET
Padres Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-110 / -110
Reds Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-110 / -110
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Michael Wacha will make his return to the rotation for the Padres on Saturday after missing his last scheduled start due to a shoulder issue. The Reds, meanwhile, will be going with rookie left-hander Brandon Williamson.

With a litany of right-handers on the 26-man roster for the Padres, the Reds have shown they can hit from that side of the pitching rubber.

The Padres have been one of the best teams in baseball off of lefties, like Williamson in June, too.

Finally, both bullpens have been terrible without much depth, and given the questionable nature of how long Wacha can even throw, emphasis on bullpen performance will be paramount.

The over should be in play with all of these variables.

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San Diego Padres

Matt Waldron became the first knuckleballer in Major League Baseball in over two seasons when he filled in for Wacha last weekend.

Wacha’s shoulder may be in better shape, as he threw a bullpen session earlier this week. On the season, however, Wacha has been getting lucky, with a 2.90 ERA against a 4.04 xERA.

The bullpen for the Padres hasn't been strong — outside of a few guys — so the Reds may be a tough matchup.

Now, the Padres can hit lefties. They owned a 139 wRC+ with a sub-20% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate in June. Their OPS was also .868.

They have eight hitters with a .325+ xwOBA on the season. Gary Sánchez is 7-for-28 and Matt Carpenter is 4-for-14, so there are a couple players with a minimal number of plate appearances off of southpaws.

That said, given their success, they have enough artillery to attack Williamson.

As stated above, the Padres have very few relievers that they can rely heavily upon — especially on a bullpen day — if Wacha sits.

Of the active bullpen arms, only Ray Kerr and Josh Hader have a sub-4.00 xFIP. This is atrocious and should be an edge to the Reds' bats due to how many righties San Diego has available in relief.

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Cincinnati Reds

Williamson may be in the future plans for a Cincinnati rotation slot, but he hasn't earned it yet. The 25-year-old southpaw owns a 5.82 ERA against a 6.76 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 12.9%, with an average exit velocity at nearly 90 mph. His hard hit rate is 46%.

His strikeout rate is only 17%, while he's walking 9.9% of hitters.

He only went two innings in his last outing, so the Reds don't seem confident in his abilities at the moment. San Diego could have a field day.

The Reds can hit righties, with a 112 wRC+ in June off of them. They also own a .802 OPS with a 10.2% walk rate and 20.9% strikeout rate. They have seven bats above a .330 xwOBA off of righties, so this is more than enough ammunition to take on the Padres’ starter.

In relief, the Reds need a lot of help. They have a multitude of injuries to relief arms, with a collective xFIP of 5.35 in June (the worst in MLB).

Only Fernando Cruz has a sub-4.00 xFIP, so the Padres should push across some runs upon a potential early exit from Williamson.

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Padres vs. Reds Betting Pick

Whether Wacha throws for San Diego or not, the Reds will be able to hit. They can smash righties, and outside of Josh Hader, there aren't too many prominent lefties going into this game.

Either way, Cincy has been about average against righties lately, so this shouldn't be much of a drop-off. Williamson hasn't shown anything impressive, and the Reds' bullpen is atrocious and very much a deadline need.

Take this game over the total, and play to 10.5 (-125).

Pick: Over to 10.5 (-125)

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