The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 19, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies were able to bounce back from a blowout loss on Tuesday with a 4-2 win last night, thanks to another dominant outing from Ranger Suarez. Philadelphia is a sizable favorite in Thursday's series finale, as Cristopher Sanchez will face off against Edward Cabrera.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
- Phillies vs Marlins pick: Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts +132 |Play to +122
My Phillies vs Marlins best bet is Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -145 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
Phillies vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | Edward Cabrera (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.05/3.35 | ERA /xERA | 4.10/4.36 |
| 3.24/3.14 | FIP / xFIP | 4.01/3.77 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 17.9 | K-BB% | 15.1 |
| 53.3 | GB% | 43 |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 94 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Phillies vs Marlins Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Sanchez to Stay Sharp
After Ranger Suarez allowed just one earned run across seven innings of work on Wednesday, the Phillies' starting rotation now holds the sixth-best ERA in MLB and ranks first in xFIP. Things won't get much easier for the Marlins' lineup Thursday evening, as Cristopher Sanchez has also been in excellent form, having allowed an ERA of just 2.97 over his last five outings.
Over his last five starts, Sanchez holds an xFIP of 3.54, but his hard-hit rate has climbed to 44% and he's allowed an xBA of .254. His pitch metrics have remained excellent, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 113 and a Pitching+ rating of 109.
The Phillies' lineup has remained effective since Bryce Harper began his most recent stint on the IL, as they have held a 12th-ranked wRC+ rating of 112 since June 6th and have struck out 19.6% of the time.
Philadelphia currently holds a wRC+ of 107 versus righties and lefties. It ranks 12th in BB/K versus righties and eighth in hard-hit rate.
The Phillies have struggled with curveballs this season, currently sitting with a 26th-ranked weighted runs above average rating versus curveballs. They have not been overly effective versus changeups either, ranking 20th in weighted runs above average versus changeups.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Buy Low on Cabrera
Edward Cabrera lasted only three innings in his most recent start versus the Washington Nationals on Friday, after tweaking his ankle covering first base in the third inning. He did not come out for the fourth inning, coming out of the game having thrown only 64 pitches.
Assuming Cabrera's ankle injury is fine, his arm should be in a good spot to take on a heavier workload in this matchup. Miami's starters have thrown only 14 and 1/3 innings throughout the first three matchups of this series, and Clayton McCullough will likely be eager to let Cabrera pitch deep into this game if possible.
After a rough start to the season, Cabrera has started to live up to his high potential. Across his last seven starts, Cabrera holds a 2.38 ERA and 3.34 xFIP. He's struck out 10.04 batters per nine in that span, and holds a Pitching+ rating of 109. In his last five starts, Cabrera owns a 14.5% swinging-strike rate and a 68.7% contact rate.
Miami will be in its preferred split versus a left-handed starter in Sanchez, as it ranks 13th in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching.
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
Cabrera has the stuff to be a highly effective starter at the MLB level, and he has been living up to his high potential outside of the first month of the season. He hasn't been lasting overly deep into many games recently, but has racked up strikeouts at a 31.7% rate over his last five appearances.
Cabrera has given up a lot of walks and seen a higher-than-expected amount of balls drop in for hits recently, but could see improvement in those two areas moving forward. After throwing just 64 pitches on Friday, he should be in good shape to work deep into this game.
The Phillies are not a great matchup for any starter to rack up K's, but a price of +132 for Cabrera to manage six or more strikeouts looks quite enticing given how filthy he can be at his best. This also looks like a good spot to sprinkle some long shots, such as eight strikeouts at +525, given Cabrera's upside when he's at his best.
Pick: Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts +132
Moneyline
At a price of +125, my lean would be with the Marlins in this matchup. They have hit lefties relatively well this season, and have a starter who has been in excellent form of late on the mound.
Run Line (Spread)
As noted above, my line would be with the Marlins in terms of bets involving sides in this matchup.
Over/Under
A low total of 7.5 looks warranted given the starting pitching matchup.
