The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 26, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -163 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +135 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction
- Phillies vs Mets Pick: Mets ML
My Phillies vs Mets best bet is on New York to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 8.5 -104o / -115u | -163 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -123 | 8.5 -104o / -115u | +135 |
- Phillies vs Mets moneyline: Phillies -163, Mets +135
- Phillies vs Mets over/under: 8.5 (-104 / -115)
- Phillies vs Mets spread: Phillies -1.5 (+102), Mets +1.5 (-123)
Phillies vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Stat | TBD |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | W-L | – |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | – |
| 2.11 / 3.00 | ERA / xERA | – |
| 3.48 / 3.28 | FIP / xFIP | – |
| 19.7% | K-BB% | – |
| 45.9% | GB% | – |
| .210 | BABIP | – |
| 105 | Stuff+ | – |
| 108 | Location+ | – |
Phillies vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
This bet is not for the faint of heart, and it is by definition a “hold your nose” spot. However, there is an angle here that I feel gets overblown the majority of the time.
The Mets fired Carlos Mendoza, they've lost six straight, and Zack Wheeler is on the mound. That's exactly why I think the value sits on the other side. At +140, you're getting a number that's been inflated by public perception, and baseball has a funny way of humbling those narratives.
The biggest misconception is that a managerial change automatically makes a team worse. In reality, it often creates a short-term spark. Players know they're under the microscope, energy gets reset, and every guy in that clubhouse is trying to prove the problem wasn't them. Andy Green inherits a club that has every reason to come out with urgency after an embarrassing week.
Now let's talk about Wheeler, because while he's been outstanding in 2026, he's not unhittable. He owns a 2.11 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with 69 strikeouts in 68.1 innings, numbers that deserve every bit of respect.
But there are reasons this Mets lineup can scratch out enough offense.
There's also familiarity. Wheeler spent years with the Mets, and divisional opponents see him more than anyone else. His career numbers against New York are excellent, but they aren't untouchable either. Across 18 starts versus the Mets, he owns a 3.36 ERA, and New York has had several games where they've squared him up for quality contact. They also tagged him for two earned runs over just 5.2 innings less than a week ago, showing this current roster has already seen his entire arsenal.
Wheeler still attacks hitters with one of the league's best four-seam fastball and slider combinations, but when opponents avoid expanding the zone and force him into the strike zone early, his hard-hit rate climbs considerably. Patient hitters who can foul off tough pitches and wait for mistakes are the blueprint against him.
Phillies vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
Philadelphia has quietly been surviving on dramatic late-game rallies. Those comeback wins are great for the standings, but they're also the type of results that inflate market prices. Eventually, those one-run breaks stop going your way, especially against a desperate division rival playing with nothing to lose.
This isn't a bet that says the Mets are the better team. It's a bet that says the market has overreacted. A fired manager, a losing streak, and Zack Wheeler on the mound have pushed everyone toward Philadelphia. That's exactly when I like grabbing a live home dog. At +135, the price is simply too good to pass up
Pick: Mets ML (+135)
