The San Francisco Giants host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 8, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-BA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Giants Prediction
- Phillies vs Giants picks: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-113) | Play to -128
My Phillies vs Giants best bet is First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-113). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Giants Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -105 / -116 | +127 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +139 | 8.5 -105 / -116 | -154 |
Phillies vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) | Stat | LHP Robbie Ray (SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L | 9-3 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.64/ 3.75 | ERA /xERA | 2.68/ 3.00 |
| 4.39/ 4.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.45/ 3.69 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 10.1% | K-BB% | 18.1% |
| 42.8% | GB% | 39.7% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 99 | Location+ | 96 |
Kenny Ducey’s Phillies vs Giants Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies initially asked Taijuan Walker to start ballgames when he was healthy enough to make his season debut earlier this year, but when their rotation healed up they decided to send Walker, and his 2.54 ERA, back to the bullpen.
He would return for a brief stint as a starter again, but he hasn't been the same since Philly made the change. Of course, he had a 4.04 FIP as a starter, so perhaps he was due for some regression. Still, this is a more trustworthy version of Walker, who pitched to a 7.10 ERA in 83 2/3 innings a season ago.
The right-hander has brought his ground-ball rate up a hair, and his Expected Batting Average sits at a respectable .246 thanks to a solid 38.7% hard-hit rate which is in the top third of the league. He's still not striking anyone out, and his walk rate is a tough 9.2% and climbing, but at the very least he's done a decent enough job on contact to inspire confidence — and his top-five infield defense is going to help him keep the counting stats in a reasonable place.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview
Robbie Ray has also leaned upon his defense a bit in 2025, pitching to plenty of fly balls inside a friendly park for a pitcher like him. His outfield hasn't had the best year, but it's picked things up in ranking top-10 in Outs Above Average last month — and the park is going to help as well.
Ray's brilliant 27.1% strikeout rate has also kept the ball out of play quite a bit, even if he's allowing runners on base via the walk 9% of the time. Still, he's come home with a .211 xBA which illustrates how infrequently batters can reach base on contact, and despite all the fly balls he still owns a solid .358 Expected Slugging.
Put simply, Ray's greatest nemesis would have to be a team that can get the ball in play and slug without a reliance upon the home run — and a patient team would only stand a greater chance of making an impact. He's at a slim risk of completely blowing up, though, which is new for Ray — and a product of pitching with a park advantage in addition to for an organization that generally gets the best out of its arms.
Phillies vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
As luck would have it, the lone start in which Ray allowed more than three earned runs this season came against the Phillies. He managed to strike out eight over four frames, but he was victimized by five walks and a back-breaking two-run homer from Bryce Harper.
That game was set in Philly, where fly balls will soar, so it's not a surprise he struggled. The walks were a bit curious, given that his opponent has walked just over 8% of the time versus lefties, and perhaps pitching in an arduous environment influenced him to be a bit more careful around the strike zone.
This one should set up favorably for the lefty against a Phillies team which is running a poor 24% strikeout rate over the last two weeks to just a .144 Isolated Power. I have a reasonable amount of confidence that Ray won't repeat his clunker, and with San Francisco holding a similarly-weak strikeout-to-walk ratio and a .133 ISO in the same timeframe it won't pose too much of a threat to Walker.
It's not a guarantee that the veteran will work deep into this game, as he's not fully stretched out. However, while the two are in the game, I think runs should be at a premium, particularly with both defenses looking strong.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-113)
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from run line bets tonight.
Over/Under
I see value on betting the total runs market in the first five innings.
