MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Phillies vs. Braves
Via Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves in action against the Philadelphia Phillies during game two of a double header at Citizens Bank Park on September 11, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Braves 7-5
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
While Aaron Nola’s expected stats have been strong this season, fans have not seen much of that come to fruition on the diamond. His last few starts have been frustrating as he has not pitched more than five innings in September. The Phillies are clinging to the top wild-card spot in the National League, but Nola has not been sharp.
He clashes with the Atlanta Braves and Bryce Elder on Wednesday afternoon. Elder has had poor expected numbers all season long, which has led to some obvious negative regression in the second half. He has been more reliable than Nola has in September, but laying a juiced moneyline with him doesn't make sense.
However, both of these teams can score, and more specifically, the Braves can hit from top to bottom with a righty on the opposing hill.
Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Phillies vs. Braves on Wednesday, September 20, below.
Nola has a 4.62 ERA against a 3.80 xERA, which should be solid. He has a Barrel Rate of 8.4%, an Average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH and a Hard Hit Rate of 38.1%. His Strikeout Rate is 24.9% against a 6% Walk Rate.
However, his second-half ERA is still 5.08 because he has allowed 10 homers in 62 innings pitched with a 1.31 WHIP. This is not going to work against the best lineup in baseball.
The Phils have a great lineup of their own, though. They have a 116 wRC+ and .806 OPS off of righties this month with a 10.4% Walk Rate and 25.3% Strikeout Rate.
Their lineup can be a bit top-heavy and unpredictable at times. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both have .400+ xwOBAs off of righties this month, which is exceptional.
However, they only have three others above the .320 mark, with Trea Turner a touch below at .315. Given how poorly Elder has pitched this month, he might provide a boost to the bottom portion of the Philly lineup.
In relief, the Phils have been fine overall, but they only have two bullpen arms with a sub-4.00 xFIP in September. Yes, their collective xFIP is 4.18, but the more shutdown options available to manager Rob Thomson the better. They also have a collective 11.2% Walk Rate, which is concerning against a team like the Braves.
Elder has a 4.40 ERA in the second half of this season with a 3.50 ERA in September. His overall xERA is 4.31 with a 3.50 ERA. Results have favored him, but he is not pitching as much above his pay grade, as he was in the first half of the season.
His Average Exit Velocity is 89.8 MPH with a Barrel Rate of 6% and a Hard Hit Rate of 40.8%. Elder can keep the ball on the ground at a 51.1% rate, so he may limit the Phillies hitters from elevating the ball, as some of them are used to.
The Braves have excelled with a 125 wRC+ and .847 OPS off of righties in September. They only have a 7.5% Walk Rate, but they have also 16% Strikeout Rate.
They have three qualified hitters above a .400 xwOBA with five others above a .330 xwOBA. This is more than enough firepower to get through Nola on Wednesday.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has hit 36 home runs and stolen 65 bases and scored 130 runs and driven in 95 more and leads the majors in on-base percentage and this is all just ridiculous.pic.twitter.com/oC56yPBMZg
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 11, 2023
In addition, the Braves have a bullpen xFIP of 4.27 with a 9% Walk Rate this month, but they have five arms below a 4.00 xFIP. The Atlanta bullpen is deeper than Philly's, and consequently, the Braves will be in a better spot in the final innings.
Phillies vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Nola should have a tough time on Wednesday against the Braves.
Atlanta should continue hitting at a high level and get the job done early to get to the shallower Philly bullpen.
Take the Braves team total over at 4.5 at -130 and play to over five runs at -120. Since Elder is also unpredictable, it is hard to back the Braves on the moneyline at juiced odds.
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