Phillies vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Bet the Over/Under in Milwaukee (Thursday, June 9)
Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies.
- The Brewers are home favorites on Thursday afternoon against the Phillies.
- With both the Phillies surging after firing their manager, is there value on them to pull the upset?
- Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Phillies vs. Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | +140 |
| Brewers Odds | -165 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
While the Philadelphia Phillies haven't quite enjoyed the success they'd hope for so far this season, culminating in the firing of former manager Joe Girardi, the Phillies are 4-0 under new manager Rob Thompson.
Philadelphia is still out of the playoff picture at 27-29, 9.5 games back in the National League East division and 3.5 games back in the wild card. The Brewers have lost five games in a row, but sit atop the National League Central division with a 33-25 record.
Who will get the job done Thursday afternoon?
Can the Phillies Provide Enough Offense?
Corbin Burnes has continued to be outstanding on the mound after a Cy Young award winning season a year ago. Burnes has a 2.50 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 31% K%, 4% BB%, and 44% ground ball percentage. Burnes wasn't great in his last start, though, as he allowed five earned runs and left the game in the third inning against the Padres at home.
He allowed one home run in that start, but it was the eight total hits and two walks that did Burnes in. The Phillies have a lot of power in their lineup with Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber, but Burnes does't allow much power and gets plenty of ground balls.
If the Phillies are going to get to Burnes here, they'll have to string hits together and that favors Burnes as Philadelphia has six hitters in its projected lineup with a K% above 21% against right-handed pitching this season.
It's more likely that Burnes is in store for one of his big strikeout games than the Phillies making consistent solid contact against him.
How Will Milwaukee's Lineup Match Up?
Zach Eflin has a 3.88 ERA on the season, but he's pitched much better than that recently. Eflin only has two blemishes on his resume in the last six weeks and both are from bad outings against the New YorkMets.
Eflin struggles with left-handed hitters and has allowed at least six runs to the Mets twice recently. However, outside of the matchup with the Mets, Eflin has completed at least six innings and allowed no more than two earned runs in his other four starts.
The main left-handed hitters Eflin will have to worry about on Milwaukee are Rowdy Tellez and Jace Peterson, who each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. Eflin has allowed a .188 ISO to left-handed hitters this season.
If he can take care of the two lefty power bats for Milwaukee, though, he could have another successful start here.
Phillies-Brewers Pick
I like the over here; 7.5 is simply too low for this spot with two good offenses in a good environment for hitting.
Burnes is a great pitcher and it wouldn't really even be a surprise if Eflin had a good start here, but the model I use is projecting this game for over nine runs.
If you're dying to bet a side here, I also have a lean to the Phillies as a value at +145 on DraftKings.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+100)
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